Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 04/10, 16:00

Prediction: Varnsdorf vs Slovan Liberec B

Team pages: Varnsdorf · Slovan Liberec B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Varnsdorf2.46

Slovan Liberec B1.22

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Varnsdorf Draw Slovan Liberec B

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Varnsdorf 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWDL

Slovan Liberec B 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Varnsdorf 4–2 Slovan Liberec B (6 last)

Varnsdorf1-2Slovan Liberec B
Slovan Liberec B5-0Varnsdorf
Varnsdorf4-1Slovan Liberec B
Varnsdorf3-1Slovan Liberec B
Varnsdorf6-1Slovan Liberec B
Varnsdorf5-0Slovan Liberec B

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varnsdorf 1512 · Slovan Liberec B 1458

	Varnsdorf	Draw	Slovan Liberec B
Our model	64%	20%	17%
Market	64%	19%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varnsdorf (rating 1512 vs 1458).
H2H favours Varnsdorf: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varnsdorf	Slovan Liberec B
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +8’	1.40	4.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Varnsdorf 4–0–2 Slovan Liberec B

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Czechia 3. Liga	Varnsdorf	1-2 HT 1-2	Slovan Liberec B
10/10/25 Czechia 3. Liga	Slovan Liberec B	5-0 HT 2-0	Varnsdorf
05/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	4-1 HT 2-0	Slovan Liberec B
10/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	3-1 HT 1-0	Slovan Liberec B
31/01/24 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	6-1 HT 3-1	Slovan Liberec B
20/07/22 Europe Friendlies	Varnsdorf	5-0 HT 1-0	Slovan Liberec B

Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Artis Brno B	11	7	4	0	20	4	25
2	FC Brno II	10	7	1	2	23	15	22
3	SK Unicov	10	6	2	2	19	13	20
4	Frydek Mistek	10	5	3	2	15	8	18
5	SK Hranice	11	5	2	4	15	10	17
6	Sigma Olomouc B	10	5	1	4	18	12	16
7	MFK Vitkovice	10	4	4	2	11	7	16
8	TJ Unie Hlubina	10	4	3	3	25	18	15
9	Slovacko II	10	4	3	3	16	11	15
10	CSK Uhersky Brod	10	4	2	4	16	16	14
11	SFK Vrchovina	10	4	2	4	11	16	14
12	FC Trinity Zlin B	10	3	3	4	12	16	12
13	FK Hodonin	10	3	2	5	10	12	11
14	MFK Karvina B	10	3	2	5	15	20	11
15	FK Blansko	10	1	4	5	15	27	7
16	FC Vsetin	10	2	1	7	10	24	7
17	Polanka	10	1	3	6	6	14	6
18	MFK Havirov	10	0	4	6	4	18	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varnsdorf	Slovan Liberec B
FK Jablonec B	0-2 L	0-2 L
SK Sokol Zapy	4-4 D	1-2 L
Velke Hamry	3-1 W	2-1 W
Benatky Nad Jizerou	1-0 W	0-4 L
Mladá Boleslav B	2-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Varnsdorf (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varnsdorf

WWLWWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D
06/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	10	2	L
09/08	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/06	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	4-0	5-0	4	1	W
30/05	Arsenal Ceska Lipa Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
24/05	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/05	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	7	6	W

Slovan Liberec B

LWLWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
20/09	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-2	8	6	L
16/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
11/09	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
06/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
29/08	FK Teplice B Czechia 3. Liga	0-3	0-4	5	3	L
08/08	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/06	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
31/05	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	2-0	5-2	4	6	W
23/05	Usti N Orlici Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varnsdorf vs Slovan Liberec B?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varnsdorf win (64%). Probabilities: Varnsdorf 64%, draw 19%, Slovan Liberec B 17%.

How many goals are expected in Varnsdorf vs Slovan Liberec B?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Varnsdorf 2.46 · Slovan Liberec B 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Varnsdorf vs Slovan Liberec B?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.