Football · Denmark Division 3 · 01/08, 13:00

Prediction: Holbæk vs Frem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Holbæk2.06

Frem1.19

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Holbæk Draw Frem

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Holbæk 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Frem 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDDWW

Head-to-head

Holbæk 4–2 Frem (6 last)

Frem1-3Holbæk
Holbæk4-1Frem
Frem0-1Holbæk
Holbæk3-0Frem
Holbæk0-2Frem
Frem1-0Holbæk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holbæk 1640 · Frem 1463

	Holbæk	Draw	Frem
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Holbæk (rating 1640 vs 1463).
H2H favours Holbæk: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holbæk	Frem
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.7	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:07 +5’	1.57	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holbæk 4–0–2 Frem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Denmark Division 3	Frem	1-3 HT 0-2	Holbæk
25/04/26 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	4-1 HT 1-1	Frem
25/10/25 Denmark Division 3	Frem	0-1 HT 0-1	Holbæk
30/08/25 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	3-0 HT 2-0	Frem
24/05/24 Denmark Division 3	Holbæk	0-2 HT 0-1	Frem
10/05/24 Denmark Division 3	Frem	1-0 HT 1-0	Holbæk

Standings · Denmark Division 3

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ASA Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bronshoj BK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Helsingor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Horsholm-Usserod IK	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holbæk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Holstebro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ishoj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Næsby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ringsted IF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sundby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vanløse	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holbæk	Frem
Vejgaard B	1-0 W	0-2 L
Sundby	5-1 W	0-0 D
IF Lyseng	2-1 W	3-1 W
Odder IGF	4-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Holbæk (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Holbæk

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Hellerup IK Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
13/06	Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-0	5	0	W
04/06	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	5-1	5	0	W
30/05	IF Lyseng Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
23/05	Frem Denmark Division 3	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
16/05	Odder IGF Denmark Division 3	2-1	4-2	6	2	W
09/05	Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
02/05	Sundby Denmark Division 3	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Frem Denmark Division 3	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
18/04	IF Lyseng Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-0	9	3	W

Frem

LLLWLLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Fremad Amager Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/07	Ishoj Europe Friendlies	1-2	3-2	3	0	W
13/06	Sundby Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
06/06	Odder IGF Denmark Division 3	0-0	2-2	5	6	D
30/05	Vejgaard B Denmark Division 3	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
23/05	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
16/05	IF Lyseng Denmark Division 3	1-1	3-1	4	0	W
08/05	Sundby Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
02/05	Odder IGF Denmark Division 3	0-0	1-4	3	0	L
25/04	Holbæk Denmark Division 3	1-1	1-4	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holbæk vs Frem?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holbæk win (57%). Probabilities: Holbæk 57%, draw 22%, Frem 21%.

How many goals are expected in Holbæk vs Frem?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Holbæk 2.06 · Frem 1.19), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Holbæk vs Frem?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.