Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: MFK Kezmarok vs MSK Tesla Stropkov

Team pages: MFK Kezmarok · MSK Tesla Stropkov

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

MFK Kezmarok0.74

MSK Tesla Stropkov2.3

1X2

10% 17% 73%

MFK Kezmarok Draw MSK Tesla Stropkov

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Kezmarok 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLDLLL

MSK Tesla Stropkov 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDLWLW

Head-to-head

MFK Kezmarok 1–1 MSK Tesla Stropkov (2 last)

MFK Kezmarok1-0MSK Tesla Stropkov
MSK Tesla Stropkov2-1MFK Kezmarok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Kezmarok 1396 · MSK Tesla Stropkov 1489

	MFK Kezmarok	Draw	MSK Tesla Stropkov
Our model	10%	19%	72%
Market	11%	16%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSK Tesla Stropkov (rating 1396 vs 1489).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Kezmarok	MSK Tesla Stropkov
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.6	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/10/90%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.7	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.75

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:16 +6’	8.00	5.75	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MFK Kezmarok 1–0–1 MSK Tesla Stropkov

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	MFK Kezmarok	1-0 HT 1-0	MSK Tesla Stropkov
17/08/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	MSK Tesla Stropkov	2-1 HT 2-0	MFK Kezmarok

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MFK Stara Lubovna	12	7	3	2	26	14	24
2	FC Lokomotiva Kosice	12	7	3	2	19	6	24
3	Ofk-Sim Raslavice	12	7	2	3	19	15	23
4	Spartak Medzev	12	7	2	3	25	17	23
5	Partizan Bardejov	12	6	2	4	22	20	20
6	Spisska Nova Ves	12	6	1	5	18	15	19
7	Odeva Lipany	12	5	3	4	24	16	18
8	FK Poprad	12	5	2	5	20	17	17
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	12	5	2	5	21	14	17
10	Slavia TU Kosice	12	5	1	6	23	21	16
11	MFK Snina	12	3	5	4	11	18	14
12	MFK Vranov nad Toplou	12	4	1	7	12	27	13
13	Slovan Sabinov	12	1	4	7	4	18	7
14	MFK Kezmarok	12	0	1	11	7	33	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Kezmarok	MSK Tesla Stropkov
Spisska Nova Ves	1-4 L	1-2 L
MFK Stara Lubovna	1-3 L	0-1 L
Slavia TU Kosice	1-3 L	1-2 L
Slovan Sabinov	0-0 D	3-0 W
Partizan Bardejov	3-4 L	3-0 W
MFK Snina	0-3 L	5-0 W
Spartak Medzev	1-3 L	1-3 L
Ofk-Sim Raslavice	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 7 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: MSK Tesla Stropkov (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Kezmarok

LLLLLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Spisska Nova Ves Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
17/10	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
11/10	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
03/10	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/09	MFK Vranov nad Toplou Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
19/09	FC Lokomotiva Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Partizan Bardejov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
06/09	MFK Snina Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	8	7	L
29/08	Spartak Medzev Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Ofk-Sim Raslavice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

MSK Tesla Stropkov

WLLLWDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	MFK Snina Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	6	5	W
17/10	Spartak Medzev Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
11/10	Ofk-Sim Raslavice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	2	7	W
03/10	FK Poprad Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
27/09	Odeva Lipany Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
19/09	Partizan Bardejov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Spisska Nova Ves Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
06/09	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/08	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Kezmarok vs MSK Tesla Stropkov?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MSK Tesla Stropkov win (73%). Probabilities: MFK Kezmarok 10%, draw 17%, MSK Tesla Stropkov 73%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Kezmarok vs MSK Tesla Stropkov?

The model expects 3.04 goals (MFK Kezmarok 0.74 · MSK Tesla Stropkov 2.3), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Kezmarok vs MSK Tesla Stropkov?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.