Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: TJ Kovo Belusa vs OK Castkovce

Team pages: TJ Kovo Belusa · OK Castkovce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

TJ Kovo Belusa2.21

OK Castkovce1.23

1X2

59% 21% 20%

TJ Kovo Belusa Draw OK Castkovce

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

TJ Kovo Belusa 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDDDLDL

OK Castkovce 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

TJ Kovo Belusa 3–2–1 OK Castkovce (6 last)

OK Castkovce1-4TJ Kovo Belusa
TJ Kovo Belusa1-1OK Castkovce
TJ Kovo Belusa2-5OK Castkovce
OK Castkovce0-2TJ Kovo Belusa
OK Castkovce1-2TJ Kovo Belusa
TJ Kovo Belusa0-0OK Castkovce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TJ Kovo Belusa 1491 · OK Castkovce 1466

	TJ Kovo Belusa	Draw	OK Castkovce
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours TJ Kovo Belusa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TJ Kovo Belusa	OK Castkovce
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.8	1.9 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	5 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +3’	1.50	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TJ Kovo Belusa 3–2–1 OK Castkovce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	OK Castkovce	1-4 HT 0-2	TJ Kovo Belusa
02/11/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	1-1 HT 0-0	OK Castkovce
20/04/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	2-5 HT 1-1	OK Castkovce
28/09/24 Slovakia 3. Liga	OK Castkovce	0-2 HT 0-1	TJ Kovo Belusa
20/04/24 Slovakia 3. Liga	OK Castkovce	1-2 HT 0-1	TJ Kovo Belusa
24/09/23 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	0-0 HT 0-0	OK Castkovce

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	12	11	1	0	45	10	34
2	Puchov	14	8	4	2	36	10	28
3	OFK Dunajska Luzna	13	8	3	2	19	10	27
4	Spartak Myjava	13	6	4	3	24	16	22
5	Dunajska Streda B	14	6	3	5	25	19	21
6	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	13	6	2	5	23	21	20
7	MSK Senec	14	6	1	7	15	23	19
8	TJ Kovo Belusa	13	4	6	3	26	21	18
9	FK Nove Zamky	13	5	3	5	15	19	18
10	FC Banik Prievidza	12	5	1	6	19	21	16
11	OK Castkovce	13	4	2	7	19	27	14
12	KFC Komarno B	14	4	2	8	16	35	14
13	AS Trencin B	13	4	2	7	23	24	14
14	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	13	3	3	7	18	31	12
15	Raca Bratislava	14	2	4	8	16	37	10
16	Slovan Duslo Šala	12	1	3	8	8	23	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TJ Kovo Belusa	OK Castkovce
AS Trencin B	1-1 D	1-0 W
FK Nove Zamky	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	2-2 D	1-0 W
Spartak Myjava	0-0 D	0-5 L
Puchov	0-2 L	1-2 L
OFK Dunajska Luzna	2-2 D	0-1 L
KFC Komarno B	5-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: TJ Kovo Belusa (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TJ Kovo Belusa

WDLDDDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SK 1923 Gabcikovo Slovakia 3. Liga	2-2	2-3	2	8	L
21/10	MSK Senec Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	3	9	D
18/10	FC Nitra Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-4	3	1	L
11/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	3	2	D
04/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
27/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
20/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
06/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
30/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	9	3	W

OK Castkovce

WDDWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/10	FK Nove Zamky Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
17/10	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/10	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-3	0-5	4	5	L
03/10	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-2	8	9	L
26/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
19/09	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
13/09	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	3-3	7	3	D
05/09	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
29/08	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TJ Kovo Belusa vs OK Castkovce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TJ Kovo Belusa win (59%). Probabilities: TJ Kovo Belusa 59%, draw 21%, OK Castkovce 20%.

How many goals are expected in TJ Kovo Belusa vs OK Castkovce?

The model expects 3.44 goals (TJ Kovo Belusa 2.21 · OK Castkovce 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in TJ Kovo Belusa vs OK Castkovce?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.