Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 26/09, 15:30

Prediction: Spisska Nova Ves vs FK Poprad

Team pages: Spisska Nova Ves · FK Poprad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Spisska Nova Ves1.87

FK Poprad0.8

1X2

63% 22% 15%

Spisska Nova Ves Draw FK Poprad

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Spisska Nova Ves 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDLWL

FK Poprad 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Spisska Nova Ves 4–1–1 FK Poprad (6 last)

Spisska Nova Ves3-0FK Poprad
FK Poprad0-2Spisska Nova Ves
FK Poprad0-0Spisska Nova Ves
Spisska Nova Ves2-3FK Poprad
FK Poprad1-4Spisska Nova Ves
Spisska Nova Ves3-1FK Poprad

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spisska Nova Ves 1566 · FK Poprad 1504

	Spisska Nova Ves	Draw	FK Poprad
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spisska Nova Ves (rating 1566 vs 1504).
H2H favours Spisska Nova Ves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spisska Nova Ves	FK Poprad
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:47 +52’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spisska Nova Ves 4–1–1 FK Poprad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	Spisska Nova Ves	3-0 HT 3-0	FK Poprad
04/10/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Poprad	0-2 HT 0-1	Spisska Nova Ves
01/03/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Poprad	0-0 HT 0-0	Spisska Nova Ves
03/08/24 Slovakia 3. Liga	Spisska Nova Ves	2-3 HT 1-3	FK Poprad
12/03/23 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Poprad	1-4 HT 0-2	Spisska Nova Ves
13/08/22 Slovakia 3. Liga	Spisska Nova Ves	3-1 HT 0-1	FK Poprad

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ofk-Sim Raslavice	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
2	Odeva Lipany	7	5	0	2	20	7	15
3	MFK Stara Lubovna	7	4	2	1	14	9	14
4	Spartak Medzev	7	4	1	2	15	7	13
5	Partizan Bardejov	7	4	1	2	12	11	13
6	Spisska Nova Ves	7	4	1	2	9	8	13
7	FK Poprad	7	4	0	3	12	7	12
8	FC Lokomotiva Kosice	7	3	3	1	10	3	12
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	7	3	1	3	12	8	10
10	MFK Snina	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
11	Slavia TU Kosice	7	2	0	5	9	14	6
12	Slovan Sabinov	7	1	1	5	3	13	4
13	MFK Vranov nad Toplou	7	1	1	5	6	21	4
14	MFK Kezmarok	7	0	0	7	4	21	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spisska Nova Ves	FK Poprad
Odeva Lipany	0-3 L	0-0 D
MFK Stara Lubovna	2-2 D	1-2 L
Slavia TU Kosice	2-1 W	2-3 L
Slovan Sabinov	1-0 W	2-0 W
MFK Vranov nad Toplou	2-0 W	3-0 W
FC Lokomotiva Kosice	3-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spisska Nova Ves

WDWWWWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Odeva Lipany Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	MSK Tesla Stropkov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Partizan Bardejov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
08/08	MFK Vranov nad Toplou Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	FC Kosice B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
23/05	MSK Spisske Podhradie Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/05	FC Lokomotiva Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	3	3	W

FK Poprad

WDDLWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	MFK Stara Lubovna Slovakia 3. Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Slavia TU Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-3	3	7	L
05/09	Slovan Sabinov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
29/08	MFK Vranov nad Toplou Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
22/08	FC Lokomotiva Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	MFK Kezmarok Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	MFK Snina Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/05	FC Lokomotiva Kosice Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
23/05	Odeva Lipany Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/05	Ofk-Sim Raslavice Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spisska Nova Ves vs FK Poprad?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spisska Nova Ves win (63%). Probabilities: Spisska Nova Ves 63%, draw 22%, FK Poprad 15%.

How many goals are expected in Spisska Nova Ves vs FK Poprad?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Spisska Nova Ves 1.87 · FK Poprad 0.8), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Spisska Nova Ves vs FK Poprad?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.