Football · Slovakia 3. Liga · 04/10, 15:00

Prediction: TJ Kovo Belusa vs FK Nove Zamky

Team pages: TJ Kovo Belusa · FK Nove Zamky

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

TJ Kovo Belusa2.15

FK Nove Zamky1.21

1X2

58% 22% 20%

TJ Kovo Belusa Draw FK Nove Zamky

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

TJ Kovo Belusa 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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FK Nove Zamky 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

TJ Kovo Belusa 3–3 FK Nove Zamky (6 last)

TJ Kovo Belusa2-1FK Nove Zamky
FK Nove Zamky2-1TJ Kovo Belusa
FK Nove Zamky3-1TJ Kovo Belusa
TJ Kovo Belusa1-0FK Nove Zamky
FK Nove Zamky0-4TJ Kovo Belusa
TJ Kovo Belusa1-2FK Nove Zamky

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TJ Kovo Belusa 1569 · FK Nove Zamky 1513

	TJ Kovo Belusa	Draw	FK Nove Zamky
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TJ Kovo Belusa (rating 1569 vs 1513).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TJ Kovo Belusa	FK Nove Zamky
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 7.4	2.6 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +31’	1.55	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · TJ Kovo Belusa 3–0–3 FK Nove Zamky

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Nove Zamky
04/10/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Nove Zamky	2-1 HT 0-0	TJ Kovo Belusa
01/03/25 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Nove Zamky	3-1 HT 1-0	TJ Kovo Belusa
04/08/24 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Nove Zamky
04/03/23 Slovakia 3. Liga	FK Nove Zamky	0-4 HT 0-1	TJ Kovo Belusa
15/05/22 Slovakia 3. Liga	TJ Kovo Belusa	1-2 HT 0-0	FK Nove Zamky

Standings · Slovakia 3. Liga · 3. Liga 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Nitra	8	7	1	0	26	5	22
2	Puchov	9	5	3	1	18	5	18
3	Spartak Myjava	9	4	3	2	13	11	15
4	TJ Kovo Belusa	8	4	3	1	19	11	15
5	OFK Dunajska Luzna	9	4	3	2	11	9	15
6	SK 1923 Gabcikovo	9	4	2	3	15	13	14
7	AS Trencin B	8	4	1	3	18	14	13
8	FC Banik Prievidza	9	4	0	5	15	15	12
9	FK Nove Zamky	8	3	2	3	11	16	11
10	Raca Bratislava	9	2	4	3	13	15	10
11	MSK Senec	9	3	0	6	8	17	9
12	OK Castkovce	9	2	2	5	17	20	8
13	KFC Komarno B	8	2	2	4	10	19	8
14	Dunajska Streda B	8	2	2	4	15	15	8
15	Slovan Duslo Šala	9	1	3	5	8	17	6
16	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	9	1	3	5	12	27	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TJ Kovo Belusa	FK Nove Zamky
Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince	2-2 D	1-3 L
Spartak Myjava	0-0 D	2-1 W
Puchov	0-2 L	1-0 W
OFK Dunajska Luzna	2-2 D	1-1 D
KFC Komarno B	5-0 W	2-0 W
Raca Bratislava	4-2 W	1-1 D
AS Trencin B	1-0 W	2-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: TJ Kovo Belusa (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TJ Kovo Belusa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-2	5	6	D
20/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
12/09	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
06/09	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
30/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	5-0	9	3	W
23/08	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	2-1	4-2	6	4	W
15/08	Slovan Duslo Šala Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
09/08	Dunajska Streda B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	13	8	W
06/06	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	OK Castkovce Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	4-1	–	–	W

FK Nove Zamky

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	2-5	6	5	L
19/09	FC Nitra Slovakia 3. Liga	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
12/09	Tj Druzstevnik Velke Ludince Slovakia 3. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	Spartak Myjava Slovakia 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
29/08	Puchov Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	OFK Dunajska Luzna Slovakia 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
15/08	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	Raca Bratislava Slovakia 3. Liga	1-0	1-1	9	11	D
06/06	KFC Komarno B Slovakia 3. Liga	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
30/05	AS Trencin B Slovakia 3. Liga	3-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FK Nove Zamky?

According to our model, the most likely result is a TJ Kovo Belusa win (58%). Probabilities: TJ Kovo Belusa 58%, draw 22%, FK Nove Zamky 20%.

How many goals are expected in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FK Nove Zamky?

The model expects 3.36 goals (TJ Kovo Belusa 2.15 · FK Nove Zamky 1.21), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in TJ Kovo Belusa vs FK Nove Zamky?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.