Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 03/08, 02:00

Prediction: Marquense vs CSD Municipal

Team pages: Marquense · CSD Municipal

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Marquense0.99

CSD Municipal1.13

1X2

32% 30% 39%

Marquense Draw CSD Municipal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Marquense 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLDLL

CSD Municipal 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Marquense 0–1–5 CSD Municipal (6 last)

Marquense1-3CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal1-0Marquense
Marquense0-2CSD Municipal
CSD Municipal3-0Marquense
CSD Municipal1-0Marquense
Marquense1-1CSD Municipal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marquense 1454 · CSD Municipal 1640

	Marquense	Draw	CSD Municipal
Our model	30%	32%	37%
Market	33%	28%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSD Municipal (rating 1454 vs 1640).
H2H favours CSD Municipal: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marquense	CSD Municipal
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	2.5 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2.3	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.25

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	3.17 → 3.19▲	Pinn 3.19
X	3.21 → 3.15▼	Pinn 3.15
2	2.15 → 2.17▲	Pinn 2.17

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:28	3.17	3.21	2.15
10:21	3.19▲	3.15▼	2.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marquense 0–1–5 CSD Municipal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	1-3 HT 0-1	CSD Municipal
01/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	1-0 HT 0-0	Marquense
30/11/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	0-2 HT 0-2	CSD Municipal
21/09/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	3-0 HT 3-0	Marquense
11/05/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	CSD Municipal	1-0 HT 1-0	Marquense
09/05/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional	Marquense	1-1 HT 1-1	CSD Municipal

Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guastatoya	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CSD Comunicaciones	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
3	Antigua GFC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
4	CSD Municipal	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Deportivo Mixco	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
6	Deportivo San Pedro	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
7	Coban Imperial	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Suchitepequez	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
9	Malacateco	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
10	Aurora	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
10	Xelaju	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
12	Marquense	1	0	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marquense	CSD Municipal
Xelaju	0-2 L	2-1 W
Guastatoya	0-4 L	2-0 W
Deportivo Mixco	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CSD Municipal (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Marquense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
04/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	2	12	L
01/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
26/04	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-3	0-4	1	3	L
19/04	CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-1	1-3	3	5	L
15/04	Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/04	Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
07/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	1	4	L
02/04	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
30/03	CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

CSD Municipal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Cartagines CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	1-1	11	2	D
25/07	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
24/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
17/05	Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-1	4-1	5	6	W
10/05	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	2-0	5-0	5	8	W
06/05	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/05	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/05	Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
26/04	Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/04	Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional	1-0	3-1	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marquense vs CSD Municipal?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSD Municipal win (39%). Probabilities: Marquense 32%, draw 30%, CSD Municipal 39%.

How many goals are expected in Marquense vs CSD Municipal?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Marquense 0.99 · CSD Municipal 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Marquense vs CSD Municipal?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.