Football · Guatemala Liga Nacional · 25/07, 02:00
Prediction: Antigua GFC vs Marquense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
Antigua GFC2.13
Marquense1.01
1X2
Antigua GFC
Draw
Marquense
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Antigua GFC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Marquense
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Antigua GFC
2–2–2
Marquense
(6 last)
- Antigua GFC1-0Marquense
- Marquense1-1Antigua GFC
- Marquense3-2Antigua GFC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Antigua GFC 1525 · Marquense 1483
| Antigua GFC | Draw | Marquense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Antigua GFC (rating 1525 vs 1483).
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Antigua GFC | Marquense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.7 | 0.8 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.4 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Antigua GFC 2–2–2 Marquense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Antigua GFC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Marquense |
| 01/02/26 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Antigua GFC |
| 16/10/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Antigua GFC |
| 20/07/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Antigua GFC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Marquense |
| 06/04/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Antigua GFC | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Marquense |
| 02/02/25 Guatemala Liga Nacional | Marquense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Antigua GFC |
Standings · Guatemala Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antigua GFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aurora | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guastatoya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Malacateco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Marquense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Suchitepequez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSD Comunicaciones | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Coban Imperial | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSD Municipal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Xelaju | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Mixco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo San Pedro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Antigua GFC | Marquense |
|---|---|---|
| CSD Comunicaciones | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Guastatoya | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| CSD Municipal | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Aurora | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Mictlán | 8-2 W | 3-0 W |
| Deportivo Mixco | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Antigua GFC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Antigua GFC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 30/04 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 26/04 | CD Achuapa Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 20/04 | Malacateco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/04 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/04 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 04/04 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/04 | Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional |
6-1 | 8-2 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 28/03 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 24/03 | Marquense Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
Marquense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 01/05 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Guastatoya Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-3 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | CSD Municipal Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 15/04 | Aurora Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Mictlán Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/04 | Deportivo Mixco Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/04 | Xelaju Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 30/03 | CSD Comunicaciones Guatemala Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 24/03 | Antigua GFC Guatemala Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Antigua GFC vs Marquense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Antigua GFC win (62%). Probabilities: Antigua GFC 62%, draw 22%, Marquense 16%.
How many goals are expected in Antigua GFC vs Marquense?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Antigua GFC 2.13 · Marquense 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Antigua GFC vs Marquense?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.