Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 17/10, 17:00

Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka

Team pages: Shakhtar Donetsk · Kolos Kovalivka

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Shakhtar Donetsk2.1

Kolos Kovalivka0.58

1X2

73% 18% 9%

Shakhtar Donetsk Draw Kolos Kovalivka

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shakhtar Donetsk 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Kolos Kovalivka 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1–2 Kolos Kovalivka (6 last)

Shakhtar Donetsk0-1Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka0-0Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk2-4Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka0-1Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk3-2Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka0-2Shakhtar Donetsk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shakhtar Donetsk 1613 · Kolos Kovalivka 1473

	Shakhtar Donetsk	Draw	Kolos Kovalivka
Our model	72%	20%	8%
Market	73%	17%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shakhtar Donetsk (rating 1613 vs 1473).
H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shakhtar Donetsk	Kolos Kovalivka
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.9	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.22

X5.25

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Pinn 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.51 ★
2	9.50 → 9.50	Pinn 9.78

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +3’	1.22	5.00	9.50
22:49 +13’	1.22	5.25▲	9.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +6’	1.23	5.48	9.54
14:23 +58’	1.24▲	5.70▲	10.23▲
17:43 +35’	1.24▲	5.67▼	10.18▼
09:12 +1’	1.24▲	5.65▼	10.16▼
09:51 +28’	1.24▼	5.66▲	10.21▲
13:06 +51’	1.24▲	5.64▼	10.19▼
17:30 +155’	1.25▲	5.51▼	9.78▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1–2 Kolos Kovalivka

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/05/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	0-1 HT 0-0	Kolos Kovalivka
06/12/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Kolos Kovalivka	0-0 HT 0-0	Shakhtar Donetsk
19/04/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	2-4 HT 1-2	Kolos Kovalivka
18/10/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Kolos Kovalivka	0-1 HT 0-0	Shakhtar Donetsk
08/03/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	3-2 HT 0-1	Kolos Kovalivka
27/08/23 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Kolos Kovalivka	0-2 HT 0-2	Shakhtar Donetsk

Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	8	7	0	1	18	4	21
2	Polissya Zhytomyr	8	6	1	1	17	7	19
3	Dynamo Kiev	7	5	1	1	10	5	16
4	FC Kharkiv	7	5	0	2	14	5	15
5	Karpaty Lviv	8	4	2	2	15	6	14
6	FC Zorya Lugansk	8	3	2	3	10	12	11
7	LNZ Lebedyn	8	3	2	3	7	9	11
8	FC Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	6	11	9
9	Kolos Kovalivka	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
10	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	8	1	5	2	6	8	8
11	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	8	2	2	4	7	10	8
12	FC Livyi Bereh	7	1	4	2	5	6	7
13	Obolon Kyiv	8	1	4	3	4	12	7
14	Chernomorets Odessa	7	1	2	4	4	9	5
15	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih	6	1	2	3	7	10	5
16	FC Kudrivka	8	0	2	6	6	20	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shakhtar Donetsk	Kolos Kovalivka
Karpaty Lviv	2-1 W	0-2 L
Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Kudrivka	5-1 W	3-2 W
FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih	3-2 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shakhtar Donetsk (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shakhtar Donetsk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
20/09	LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	3-0	4	3	W
14/09	Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/09	Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
29/08	Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
16/08	FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
09/08	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/08	FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	5-1	5	3	W
21/05	Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
17/05	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-0	3-2	0	0	W

Kolos Kovalivka

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	3-1	0	1	W
20/09	FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-1	3-2	3	12	W
11/09	Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
05/09	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
28/08	Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
16/08	Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	1-2	1	7	L
31/07	FC Zorya Lugansk Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
21/05	Shakhtar Donetsk Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
17/05	Obolon Kyiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
13/05	Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-2	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shakhtar Donetsk win (73%). Probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 73%, draw 18%, Kolos Kovalivka 9%.

How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Shakhtar Donetsk 2.1 · Kolos Kovalivka 0.58), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kolos Kovalivka?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.