Football · Ukraine Vyscha Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Zorya Lugansk

Team pages: Shakhtar Donetsk · FC Zorya Lugansk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Shakhtar Donetsk2.18

FC Zorya Lugansk0.72

1X2

70% 19% 10%

Shakhtar Donetsk Draw FC Zorya Lugansk

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Shakhtar Donetsk 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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FC Zorya Lugansk 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shakhtar Donetsk 5–1–0 FC Zorya Lugansk (6 last)

FC Zorya Lugansk1-2Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk1-0FC Zorya Lugansk
FC Zorya Lugansk0-0Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk3-1FC Zorya Lugansk
Shakhtar Donetsk1-0FC Zorya Lugansk
Shakhtar Donetsk2-1FC Zorya Lugansk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shakhtar Donetsk 1623 · FC Zorya Lugansk 1557

	Shakhtar Donetsk	Draw	FC Zorya Lugansk
Our model	70%	20%	10%
Market	71%	19%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shakhtar Donetsk (rating 1623 vs 1557).
H2H favours Shakhtar Donetsk: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shakhtar Donetsk	FC Zorya Lugansk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.27

X4.75

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:13 +8’	1.27	4.75	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shakhtar Donetsk 5–1–0 FC Zorya Lugansk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	FC Zorya Lugansk	1-2 HT 0-1	Shakhtar Donetsk
22/09/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Zorya Lugansk
09/05/25 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	FC Zorya Lugansk	0-0 HT 0-0	Shakhtar Donetsk
10/11/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	3-1 HT 0-1	FC Zorya Lugansk
30/10/24 Ukraine Cup	Shakhtar Donetsk	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Zorya Lugansk
22/04/24 Ukraine Vyscha Liga	Shakhtar Donetsk	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Zorya Lugansk

Standings · Ukraine Vyscha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shakhtar Donetsk	9	8	0	1	20	5	24
2	Polissya Zhytomyr	9	7	1	1	20	8	22
3	FC Kharkiv	8	6	0	2	16	6	18
4	Dynamo Kiev	8	5	1	2	11	8	16
5	Karpaty Lviv	9	4	3	2	17	8	15
6	LNZ Lebedyn	9	4	2	3	10	9	14
7	FC Zorya Lugansk	9	4	2	3	12	13	14
8	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi	9	2	3	4	9	12	9
9	FC Veres Rivne	9	2	3	4	6	11	9
10	Kolos Kovalivka	8	2	2	4	10	13	8
11	Bukovyna Chernivtsi	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
12	FC Livyi Bereh	8	1	4	3	6	8	7
13	Obolon Kyiv	8	1	4	3	4	12	7
14	Chernomorets Odessa	8	1	2	5	5	11	5
15	FC Kudrivka	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
16	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih	7	1	2	4	7	13	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shakhtar Donetsk	FC Zorya Lugansk
Kolos Kovalivka	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Veres Rivne	3-0 W	1-1 D
Chernomorets Odessa	2-0 W	2-1 W
Karpaty Lviv	2-1 W	2-1 W
Polissya Zhytomyr	0-2 L	2-1 W
FC Kharkiv	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shakhtar Donetsk (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shakhtar Donetsk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-0	2-1	7	5	W
09/10	FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
20/09	LNZ Lebedyn Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	3-0	4	3	W
14/09	Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-0	2-0	1	2	W
05/09	Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
29/08	Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
16/08	FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
09/08	Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
03/08	FC Kudrivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	5-1	5	3	W
21/05	Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	0-1	1	0	L

FC Zorya Lugansk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	2-1	11	5	W
12/10	FC Livyi Bereh Ukraine Vyscha Liga	2-0	3-1	8	1	W
19/09	Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	0-2	4	3	L
13/09	Bukovyna Chernivtsi Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
06/09	FC Veres Rivne Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
31/08	FC Kharkiv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
17/08	Polissya Zhytomyr Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
09/08	FC Kryvbas Kriviy Rih Ukraine Vyscha Liga	1-0	1-3	5	2	L
31/07	Kolos Kovalivka Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
23/05	Karpaty Lviv Ukraine Vyscha Liga	0-1	2-1	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Zorya Lugansk?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shakhtar Donetsk win (70%). Probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 70%, draw 19%, FC Zorya Lugansk 10%.

How many goals are expected in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Zorya Lugansk?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Shakhtar Donetsk 2.18 · FC Zorya Lugansk 0.72), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs FC Zorya Lugansk?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.