Football · Poland II Liga · 09/10, 18:00

Prediction: Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ

Team pages: Chojniczanka Chojnice · Podhale Nowy Targ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Chojniczanka Chojnice1.63

Podhale Nowy Targ1.58

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Chojniczanka Chojnice Draw Podhale Nowy Targ

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chojniczanka Chojnice 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDDWWL

Podhale Nowy Targ 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Chojniczanka Chojnice 0–1–2 Podhale Nowy Targ (3 last)

Podhale Nowy Targ2-0Chojniczanka Chojnice
Podhale Nowy Targ3-2Chojniczanka Chojnice
Chojniczanka Chojnice0-0Podhale Nowy Targ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1491 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1543

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Draw	Podhale Nowy Targ
Our model	38%	25%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podhale Nowy Targ (rating 1491 vs 1543).
H2H favours Podhale Nowy Targ: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Podhale Nowy Targ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/0/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.8	2.6 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +4’	2.35	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chojniczanka Chojnice 0–1–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/26 Poland Cup	Podhale Nowy Targ	2-0 HT 0-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice
09/05/26 Poland II Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	3-2 HT 2-0	Chojniczanka Chojnice
25/10/25 Poland II Liga	Chojniczanka Chojnice	0-0 HT 0-0	Podhale Nowy Targ

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	10	7	2	1	23	12	23
2	Gornik Leczna	10	6	2	2	21	10	20
3	GKS Tychy 71	10	5	5	0	14	6	20
4	Podhale Nowy Targ	10	5	2	3	20	18	17
5	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	10	4	4	2	17	13	16
6	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	10	5	1	4	15	11	16
7	Lechia Zielona Góra	10	4	3	3	20	16	15
8	Hutnik Krakow	10	4	3	3	16	13	15
9	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	10	4	3	3	14	11	15
10	Olimpia Grudziadz	10	4	3	3	13	16	15
11	Chojniczanka Chojnice	10	4	2	4	17	17	14
12	Avia Swidnik	10	3	2	5	13	17	11
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	10	3	1	6	16	21	10
14	Legia Warsaw II	9	3	0	6	18	17	9
15	Slask Wroclaw II	9	3	0	6	15	17	9
16	Sokol Kleczew	10	1	5	4	11	23	8
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
18	Resovia Rzeszow	10	0	4	6	7	19	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chojniczanka Chojnice	Podhale Nowy Targ
Gornik Leczna	1-3 L	2-5 L
Olimpia Grudziadz	3-1 W	3-1 W
Resovia Rzeszow	2-2 D	1-1 D
Sokol Kleczew	1-1 D	0-0 D
Stal Stalowa Wola	2-0 W	5-0 W
Slask Wroclaw II	2-1 W	3-1 W
Sandecja Nowy Sacz	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Podhale Nowy Targ (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chojniczanka Chojnice

LLLWWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	8	6	L
19/09	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-1	3-1	4	2	W
12/09	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	2-1	5-1	7	5	W
05/09	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
29/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
21/08	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	2-1	6	8	W
09/08	Znicz Pruszków Poland II Liga	0-2	1-4	3	3	L
02/08	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	7	8	L
26/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Podhale Nowy Targ

WDLLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
19/09	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
12/09	Stal Stalowa Wola Poland II Liga	3-0	5-0	8	3	W
05/09	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
29/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/08	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-3	2-5	4	3	L
08/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-5	4	9	L
01/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	9	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chojniczanka Chojnice win (38%). Probabilities: Chojniczanka Chojnice 38%, draw 26%, Podhale Nowy Targ 36%.

How many goals are expected in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.63 · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.58), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Podhale Nowy Targ?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.