Football · Poland II Liga · 12/09, 14:00

Prediction: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Stal Stalowa Wola

Team pages: Podhale Nowy Targ · Stal Stalowa Wola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Podhale Nowy Targ1.68

Stal Stalowa Wola1.4

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Podhale Nowy Targ Draw Stal Stalowa Wola

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Podhale Nowy Targ 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLLDWW

Stal Stalowa Wola 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Podhale Nowy Targ 0–3–3 Stal Stalowa Wola (6 last)

Stal Stalowa Wola0-0Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ1-1Stal Stalowa Wola
Podhale Nowy Targ0-1Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola1-0Podhale Nowy Targ
Podhale Nowy Targ0-0Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola2-0Podhale Nowy Targ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podhale Nowy Targ 1533 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1493

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Draw	Stal Stalowa Wola
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podhale Nowy Targ (rating 1533 vs 1493).
H2H favours Stal Stalowa Wola: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podhale Nowy Targ	Stal Stalowa Wola
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +3’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Podhale Nowy Targ 0–3–3 Stal Stalowa Wola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Poland II Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	0-0 HT 0-0	Podhale Nowy Targ
17/08/25 Poland II Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	1-1 HT 0-1	Stal Stalowa Wola
07/05/23 Poland III Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	0-1 HT 0-1	Stal Stalowa Wola
02/10/22 Poland III Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	1-0 HT 0-0	Podhale Nowy Targ
02/04/22 Poland III Liga	Podhale Nowy Targ	0-0 HT 0-0	Stal Stalowa Wola
28/08/21 Poland III Liga	Stal Stalowa Wola	2-0 HT 0-0	Podhale Nowy Targ

Standings · Poland II Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Znicz Pruszków	7	5	1	1	15	8	16
2	GKS Tychy 71	7	4	3	0	11	5	15
3	Hutnik Krakow	7	4	2	1	15	8	14
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	7	4	2	1	15	10	14
5	Gornik Leczna	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
6	Sandecja Nowy Sacz	7	3	2	2	9	6	11
7	Podhale Nowy Targ	7	3	2	2	13	14	11
8	Olimpia Grudziadz	7	3	2	2	9	11	11
9	Rekord Bielsko-Biala	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	7	2	3	2	15	12	9
11	Avia Swidnik	7	3	0	4	10	13	9
12	Chojniczanka Chojnice	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
13	Stal Stalowa Wola	7	2	1	4	12	12	7
14	Legia Warsaw II	7	2	0	5	14	13	6
15	Slask Wroclaw II	7	2	0	5	11	13	6
16	Sokol Kleczew	7	1	3	3	7	18	6
17	OKS Swit Skolwin	7	1	2	4	8	15	5
18	Resovia Rzeszow	7	0	3	4	6	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Podhale Nowy Targ	Stal Stalowa Wola
Resovia Rzeszow	1-1 D	2-2 D
Hutnik Krakow	2-5 L	1-2 L
Sokol Kleczew	0-0 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Stal Stalowa Wola (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Podhale Nowy Targ

LDLWDLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
29/08	Olimpia Grudziadz Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
22/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/08	Gornik Leczna Poland II Liga	0-3	2-5	4	3	L
08/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	2-5	4	9	L
01/08	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
25/07	Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga	2-0	3-1	9	6	W
30/05	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland II Liga	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/05	Warta Poznan Poland II Liga	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
17/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

Stal Stalowa Wola

WDWWLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland II Liga	1-1	3-3	6	7	D
29/08	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-2	1-2	9	3	L
21/08	Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
16/08	Avia Swidnik Poland II Liga	1-0	4-0	3	1	W
08/08	Rekord Bielsko-Biala Poland II Liga	0-2	1-3	6	1	L
31/07	GKS Tychy 71 Poland II Liga	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
25/07	Legia Warsaw II Poland II Liga	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/05	Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
15/05	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
08/05	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	1-0	3-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podhale Nowy Targ win (43%). Probabilities: Podhale Nowy Targ 43%, draw 26%, Stal Stalowa Wola 31%.

How many goals are expected in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Podhale Nowy Targ 1.68 · Stal Stalowa Wola 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Podhale Nowy Targ vs Stal Stalowa Wola?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.