Prediction: Midwest United vs Union FC Macomb
Expected goals: 3.66 (Midwest United 2.58 · Union FC Macomb 1.08). The model gives 69% home, 17% draw, 13% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 2-1.
On recent form, Midwest United is 4-1-5 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Union FC Macomb 1-3-6 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for Midwest United and 1 for Union FC Macomb.
| Midwest United | Draw | Union FC Macomb | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 18% | 13% |
| Market | 70% | 16% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Midwest United (rating 1500 vs 1420).
- H2H favours Midwest United: 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Midwest United | Union FC Macomb | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.7 / 3 | 2 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Midwest United 4–0–1 Union FC Macomb
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/26 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Midwest United |
| 14/06/25 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Midwest United |
| 08/05/25 USA USL League Two | Midwest United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Union FC Macomb |
| 02/06/24 USA USL League Two | Union FC Macomb | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Midwest United |
| 09/05/24 USA USL League Two | Midwest United | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Union FC Macomb |
Standings · USA USL League Two · USL League Two 2026, Great Lakes Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flint City Bucks | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 12 | 28 |
| 2 | Oakland County FC | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | Kalamazoo FC | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 16 |
| 4 | AFC Ann Arbor | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 15 |
| 5 | Midwest United | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 13 |
| 6 | Union FC Macomb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 28 | 7 |
| 7 | Lansing City Football | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 41 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Midwest United | Union FC Macomb |
|---|---|---|
| Flint City Bucks | 1-4 L | 2-3 L |
| Kalamazoo FC | 2-2 D | 2-7 L |
| Lansing City Football | 5-1 W | 2-3 L |
| AFC Ann Arbor | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Oakland County FC | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Midwest United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Midwest United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Flint City Bucks USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 25/06 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/06 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 13/06 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/06 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Flint City Bucks USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | Union FC Macomb USA USL League Two |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 28/05 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/05 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Union FC Macomb
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 24/06 | Lansing City Football USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
| 03/06 | Midwest United USA USL League Two |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | AFC Ann Arbor USA USL League Two |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Flint City Bucks USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Oakland County FC USA USL League Two |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/05 | Kalamazoo FC USA USL League Two |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/07 | Northern Indiana FC USA USL League Two |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Midwest United vs Union FC Macomb?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Midwest United win (69%). Probabilities: Midwest United 69%, draw 17%, Union FC Macomb 13%.
How many goals are expected in Midwest United vs Union FC Macomb?
The model expects 3.66 goals (Midwest United 2.58 · Union FC Macomb 1.08), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Midwest United vs Union FC Macomb?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.