Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Suduva Marijampole II vs Vilnius Football Academy

Team pages: Suduva Marijampole II · Vilnius Football Academy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.95Total

Suduva Marijampole II1.99

Vilnius Football Academy1.96

1X2

39% 22% 39%

Suduva Marijampole II Draw Vilnius Football Academy

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Suduva Marijampole II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWD

Vilnius Football Academy 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Suduva Marijampole II 0–1 Vilnius Football Academy (1 last)

Vilnius Football Academy4-0Suduva Marijampole II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Suduva Marijampole II 1579 · Vilnius Football Academy 1571

	Suduva Marijampole II	Draw	Vilnius Football Academy
Our model	39%	22%	38%
Market	40%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Suduva Marijampole II	Vilnius Football Academy
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1	2.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.4	3.3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +6’	2.25	4.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Suduva Marijampole II 0–0–1 Vilnius Football Academy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Vilnius Football Academy	4-0 HT 2-0	Suduva Marijampole II

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	23	18	4	1	58	19	58
2	Vilnius Football Academy	23	15	5	3	71	27	50
3	Suduva Marijampole II	22	14	4	4	54	24	46
4	FK Sveikata	22	11	6	5	50	30	39
5	FK Sirvena	23	11	6	6	43	29	39
6	FK Panevezys II	22	9	6	7	52	44	33
7	FM Klaipedos	24	10	3	11	31	35	33
8	Banga Gargzdai II	23	8	5	10	37	27	29
9	Sirijus Klaipeda	22	8	5	9	39	34	29
10	FKS Ukmerge	23	8	4	11	36	36	28
11	Utenis Utena	23	7	5	11	30	51	26
12	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	22	6	3	13	37	55	21
13	FK Silute	23	5	5	13	27	60	20
14	DFK Dainava II	23	5	1	17	38	80	16
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	22	3	2	17	25	77	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Suduva Marijampole II	Vilnius Football Academy
FKS Ukmerge	2-0 W	2-0 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-1 W	0-2 L
DFK Dainava II	6-3 W	2-2 D
FM Klaipedos	0-1 L	2-0 W
FK Silute	6-0 W	6-0 W
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	3-2 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Suduva Marijampole II

WDWLWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	5-0	6	6	W
12/09	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	5-0	4	3	W
29/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
22/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
16/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	6-3	3	4	W
05/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
01/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	10	2	W
04/07	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
28/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	3-2	2	1	W

Vilnius Football Academy

DWDWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
19/09	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
11/09	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	2-2	15	3	D
02/09	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
28/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	11	2	W
23/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	4-2	5	6	W
14/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
08/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
31/07	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-1	5	1	W
30/06	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	3-3	4	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Suduva Marijampole II vs Vilnius Football Academy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Suduva Marijampole II win (39%). Probabilities: Suduva Marijampole II 39%, draw 22%, Vilnius Football Academy 39%.

How many goals are expected in Suduva Marijampole II vs Vilnius Football Academy?

The model expects 3.95 goals (Suduva Marijampole II 1.99 · Vilnius Football Academy 1.96), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Suduva Marijampole II vs Vilnius Football Academy?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.