Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 26/09, 11:00

Prediction: FK Sirvena vs FK Viltis Vilnius

Team pages: FK Sirvena · FK Viltis Vilnius

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

FK Sirvena3.08

FK Viltis Vilnius1.08

1X2

79% 13% 9%

FK Sirvena Draw FK Viltis Vilnius

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sirvena 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWWWDL

FK Viltis Vilnius 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Sirvena 2–2–1 FK Viltis Vilnius (5 last)

FK Viltis Vilnius2-2FK Sirvena
FK Sirvena3-2FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius2-2FK Sirvena
FK Sirvena4-2FK Viltis Vilnius
FK Viltis Vilnius3-1FK Sirvena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sirvena 1542 · FK Viltis Vilnius 1388

	FK Sirvena	Draw	FK Viltis Vilnius
Our model	76%	14%	9%
Market	80%	11%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Sirvena (rating 1542 vs 1388).
H2H favours FK Sirvena: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sirvena	FK Viltis Vilnius
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	0.8 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.2 / 1.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	0/10/90%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	1.3 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.14

X8.00

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14
X	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
2	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +46’	1.14	8.00	11.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sirvena 2–2–1 FK Viltis Vilnius

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Sirvena
14/08/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sirvena	3-2 HT 3-0	FK Viltis Vilnius
06/04/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Sirvena
01/09/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sirvena	4-2 HT 1-0	FK Viltis Vilnius
18/05/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Viltis Vilnius	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Sirvena

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	22	17	4	1	54	16	55
2	Vilnius Football Academy	23	15	5	3	71	27	50
3	Suduva Marijampole II	22	14	4	4	54	24	46
4	FK Sveikata	21	10	6	5	48	29	36
5	FK Sirvena	22	10	6	6	41	29	36
6	FK Panevezys II	22	9	6	7	52	44	33
7	FM Klaipedos	22	10	3	9	30	30	33
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	22	8	5	9	39	34	29
9	FKS Ukmerge	22	8	4	10	33	32	28
10	Banga Gargzdai II	22	7	5	10	34	27	26
11	Utenis Utena	23	7	5	11	30	51	26
12	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	22	6	3	13	37	55	21
13	FK Silute	23	5	5	13	27	60	20
14	DFK Dainava II	23	5	1	17	38	80	16
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	21	3	2	16	25	75	11

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sirvena	FK Viltis Vilnius
Suduva Marijampole II	0-5 L	0-5 L
FKS Ukmerge	0-0 D	1-5 L
Sirijus Klaipeda	1-0 W	1-2 L
DFK Dainava II	5-1 W	1-3 L
FM Klaipedos	4-1 W	0-2 L
FK Silute	3-1 W	2-3 L
FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	1-2 L	2-1 W
Banga Gargzdai II	0-0 D	0-4 L
FK Sveikata	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sirvena (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Sirvena

DWDLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-5	1	6	L
12/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
21/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	4-1	5	3	W
14/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
09/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-2	1	6	L
31/07	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	14	4	D
03/07	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
28/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

FK Viltis Vilnius

LLLWLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-5	4	3	L
05/09	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-3	1-5	8	4	L
30/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
23/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-3	2	1	L
16/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
08/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
02/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	12	W
27/06	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-4	2	3	L
24/06	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	1-6	–	–	L
20/06	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-2	0-4	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sirvena vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sirvena win (79%). Probabilities: FK Sirvena 79%, draw 13%, FK Viltis Vilnius 9%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sirvena vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

The model expects 4.16 goals (FK Sirvena 3.08 · FK Viltis Vilnius 1.08), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sirvena vs FK Viltis Vilnius?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.