Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 09/10, 17:00

Prediction: Nevezis vs Suduva Marijampole II

Team pages: Nevezis · Suduva Marijampole II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Nevezis1.81

Suduva Marijampole II1.43

1X2

46% 23% 30%

Nevezis Draw Suduva Marijampole II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Nevezis 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Suduva Marijampole II 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nevezis 0–1–0 Suduva Marijampole II (1 last)

Suduva Marijampole II1-1Nevezis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nevezis 1613 · Suduva Marijampole II 1573

	Nevezis	Draw	Suduva Marijampole II
Our model	46%	25%	30%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nevezis (rating 1613 vs 1573).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nevezis	Suduva Marijampole II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1	2.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	3.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:13 +2’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nevezis 0–1–0 Suduva Marijampole II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	Suduva Marijampole II	1-1 HT 0-0	Nevezis

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	23	18	4	1	58	19	58
2	Vilnius Football Academy	24	15	6	3	71	27	51
3	Suduva Marijampole II	23	14	5	4	54	24	47
4	FK Sveikata	22	11	6	5	50	30	39
5	FK Sirvena	23	11	6	6	43	29	39
6	FK Panevezys II	23	9	6	8	57	50	33
7	FM Klaipedos	24	10	3	11	31	35	33
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	23	9	5	9	45	39	32
9	Banga Gargzdai II	23	9	4	10	43	28	31
10	FKS Ukmerge	23	8	4	11	36	36	28
11	Utenis Utena	24	7	5	12	30	52	26
12	FK Silute	24	6	4	14	31	67	22
13	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	23	6	3	14	38	58	21
14	DFK Dainava II	23	5	1	17	38	80	16
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	23	4	2	17	26	77	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nevezis	Suduva Marijampole II
FKS Ukmerge	4-3 W	2-0 W
Sirijus Klaipeda	2-1 W	2-1 W
DFK Dainava II	2-1 W	6-3 W
FM Klaipedos	4-0 W	0-1 L
FK Silute	2-1 W	6-0 W
Vilnius Football Academy	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Suduva Marijampole II (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nevezis

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	4-3	3	2	W
25/09	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
11/09	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
05/09	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
28/08	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	8	5	W
24/08	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	2-2	3-2	3	2	W
14/08	FK Sveikata Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
07/08	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
26/06	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	2-1	2	2	W

Suduva Marijampole II

DWLWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
24/09	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
19/09	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	5-0	6	6	W
12/09	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	5-0	4	3	W
29/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
22/08	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-1	7	10	W
16/08	DFK Dainava II Lithuania II Lyga	2-1	6-3	3	4	W
05/08	FM Klaipedos Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
01/08	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	3-0	6-0	10	2	W
04/07	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nevezis vs Suduva Marijampole II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nevezis win (46%). Probabilities: Nevezis 46%, draw 23%, Suduva Marijampole II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Nevezis vs Suduva Marijampole II?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Nevezis 1.81 · Suduva Marijampole II 1.43), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nevezis vs Suduva Marijampole II?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.