Football · Lithuania II Lyga · 26/09, 13:00

Prediction: FK Sveikata vs FM Klaipedos

Team pages: FK Sveikata · FM Klaipedos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

FK Sveikata2.25

FM Klaipedos1.1

1X2

63% 20% 17%

FK Sveikata Draw FM Klaipedos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Sveikata 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDWLWW

FM Klaipedos 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLLD

Head-to-head

FK Sveikata 4–2 FM Klaipedos (6 last)

FM Klaipedos2-1FK Sveikata
FM Klaipedos0-2FK Sveikata
FK Sveikata3-0FM Klaipedos
FK Sveikata2-1FM Klaipedos
FM Klaipedos2-1FK Sveikata
FK Sveikata2-1FM Klaipedos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Sveikata 1558 · FM Klaipedos 1470

	FK Sveikata	Draw	FM Klaipedos
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	64%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Sveikata (rating 1558 vs 1470).
H2H favours FK Sveikata: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Sveikata	FM Klaipedos
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.1	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +27’	1.40	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Sveikata 4–0–2 FM Klaipedos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	2-1 HT 1-1	FK Sveikata
24/10/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Sveikata
14/06/25 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sveikata	3-0 HT 1-0	FM Klaipedos
18/09/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sveikata	2-1 HT 0-1	FM Klaipedos
26/05/24 Lithuania II Lyga	FM Klaipedos	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Sveikata
19/08/23 Lithuania II Lyga	FK Sveikata	2-1 HT 1-1	FM Klaipedos

Standings · Lithuania II Lyga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nevezis	22	17	4	1	54	16	55
2	Vilnius Football Academy	23	15	5	3	71	27	50
3	Suduva Marijampole II	22	14	4	4	54	24	46
4	FK Sveikata	21	10	6	5	48	29	36
5	FK Sirvena	22	10	6	6	41	29	36
6	FK Panevezys II	22	9	6	7	52	44	33
7	FM Klaipedos	22	10	3	9	30	30	33
8	Sirijus Klaipeda	22	8	5	9	39	34	29
9	FKS Ukmerge	22	8	4	10	33	32	28
10	Banga Gargzdai II	22	7	5	10	34	27	26
11	Utenis Utena	23	7	5	11	30	51	26
12	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II	22	6	3	13	37	55	21
13	FK Silute	23	5	5	13	27	60	20
14	DFK Dainava II	23	5	1	17	38	80	16
15	FK Viltis Vilnius	21	3	2	16	25	75	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Sveikata	FM Klaipedos
FK Panevezys II	5-0 W	1-1 D
Nevezis	0-0 D	0-4 L
Vilnius Football Academy	2-2 D	0-2 L
Utenis Utena	2-2 D	0-1 L
FK Sirvena	1-1 D	1-4 L
FK Viltis Vilnius	4-0 W	2-0 W
Suduva Marijampole II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FK Sveikata (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Sveikata

WWDDDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FK Silute Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
13/09	FK Neptunas Klaipeda II Lithuania II Lyga	5-2	6-2	7	2	W
04/09	Banga Gargzdai II Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
22/08	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
14/08	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
08/08	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	1-2	2-2	5	6	D
02/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
28/06	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
14/06	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	5	0	W

FM Klaipedos

WWLWWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FK Panevezys II Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/09	Nevezis Lithuania II Lyga	0-3	0-4	8	4	L
02/09	Vilnius Football Academy Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
26/08	Utenis Utena Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
21/08	FK Sirvena Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-4	5	3	L
16/08	FK Viltis Vilnius Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
05/08	Suduva Marijampole II Lithuania II Lyga	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
01/08	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
03/07	FKS Ukmerge Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
27/06	Sirijus Klaipeda Lithuania II Lyga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Sveikata vs FM Klaipedos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Sveikata win (63%). Probabilities: FK Sveikata 63%, draw 20%, FM Klaipedos 17%.

How many goals are expected in FK Sveikata vs FM Klaipedos?

The model expects 3.35 goals (FK Sveikata 2.25 · FM Klaipedos 1.1), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Sveikata vs FM Klaipedos?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.