Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 02/08, 20:00

Prediction: OFK Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

OFK Mladost DG1.37

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1.04

1X2

44% 29% 28%

OFK Mladost DG Draw Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Mladost DG 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWLDLD

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWWLW

Head-to-head

OFK Mladost DG 3–1–2 Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (6 last)

OFK Mladost DG2-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj1-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG0-2Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
OFK Mladost DG1-0Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj0-1OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG3-0Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Mladost DG 1488 · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1536

	OFK Mladost DG	Draw	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj (rating 1488 vs 1536).
H2H favours OFK Mladost DG: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Mladost DG	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +5’	2.05	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Mladost DG 3–1–2 Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/06/24 Montenegro Play-Offs	OFK Mladost DG	2-2 HT 1-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
31/05/24 Montenegro Play-Offs	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
10/02/24 Club Friendly List	OFK Mladost DG	0-2 HT 0-1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
30/04/23 Montenegro Druga Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-0 HT 0-0	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj
18/03/23 Montenegro Druga Liga	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 HT 0-1	OFK Mladost DG
22/10/22 Montenegro Druga Liga	OFK Mladost DG	3-0	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Bokelj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Buducnost Podgorica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Decic Tuzi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Jezero	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Mornar Bar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutjeska Niksic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Mladost DG	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Petrovac	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

OFK Mladost DG

LWWDLWLDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	FK Lovcen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
19/07	Smederevo Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-4	1	0	L
17/07	FK Vozdovac Club Friendly List	0-0	3-3	5	2	D
01/07	FK Arsenal Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
24/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	4-1	3	5	W
20/05	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
16/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
10/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
02/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
26/04	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-2	2	4	L

Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj

LWWLWDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Vllaznia Shkoder Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
19/07	FK Bokelj Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
24/05	FK Kom Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
20/05	FK Grbalj Radanovici Montenegro Druga Liga	2-2	4-2	3	4	W
16/05	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Druga Liga	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	FK Podgorica Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
06/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Cup	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
02/05	OFK Igalo Montenegro Druga Liga	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
26/04	FK Lovcen Montenegro Druga Liga	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
22/04	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Cup	0-1	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Mladost DG win (44%). Probabilities: OFK Mladost DG 44%, draw 29%, Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 28%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

The model expects 2.41 goals (OFK Mladost DG 1.37 · Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Mladost DG vs Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.