Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 02/08, 20:00

Prediction: FK Jezero vs FK Mornar Bar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

FK Jezero0.83

FK Mornar Bar1.28

1X2

24% 30% 46%

FK Jezero Draw FK Mornar Bar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

FK Jezero 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDLLWW

FK Mornar Bar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWWWWDLL

Head-to-head

FK Jezero 1–1–4 FK Mornar Bar (6 last)

FK Jezero0-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Jezero1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar1-0FK Jezero
FK Mornar Bar2-0FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-1FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar2-2FK Jezero

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Jezero 1478 · FK Mornar Bar 1550

	FK Jezero	Draw	FK Mornar Bar
Our model	23%	31%	46%
Market	24%	29%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1478 vs 1550).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Jezero	FK Mornar Bar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.1	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.10

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:30 +1’	3.70	3.10	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Jezero 1–1–4 FK Mornar Bar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Mornar Bar
06/05/26 Montenegro Cup	FK Jezero	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Mornar Bar
22/04/26 Montenegro Cup	FK Mornar Bar	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Jezero
04/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Jezero
06/12/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Mornar Bar
27/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-2 HT 2-0	FK Jezero

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Arsenal	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Bokelj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Buducnost Podgorica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Decic Tuzi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Jezero	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FK Mornar Bar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sutjeska Niksic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Mladost DG	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	OFK Petrovac	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Jezero	FK Mornar Bar
FK Decic Tuzi	0-3 L	1-0 W
Sutjeska Niksic	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Mornar Bar (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FK Jezero

LDDLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/06	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Prva Liga Play-Offs	2-0	5-1	4	2	W
29/05	FK Iskra Danilovgrad Montenegro Prva Liga Play-Offs	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
24/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
20/05	FK Jedinstvo Bijelo Polje Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	2-2	1	5	D
10/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
06/05	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Cup	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
02/05	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
26/04	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
22/04	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Cup	0-1	0-1	1	4	L

FK Mornar Bar

DDDWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	AC d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
09/07	AC d'Escaldes UEFA Conference League Qualifying	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
01/07	OFK Petrovac Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
01/07	FK Zemun Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
24/06	Sutjeska Niksic Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
28/05	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Cup	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/05	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
20/05	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
16/05	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/05	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Jezero vs FK Mornar Bar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Mornar Bar win (46%). Probabilities: FK Jezero 24%, draw 30%, FK Mornar Bar 46%.

How many goals are expected in FK Jezero vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model expects 2.11 goals (FK Jezero 0.83 · FK Mornar Bar 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Jezero vs FK Mornar Bar?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.