Football · England League 1 · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Doncaster vs Burton Albion

Team pages: Doncaster · Burton Albion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Doncaster1.71

Burton Albion1.08

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Doncaster Draw Burton Albion

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Doncaster 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDDLLW

Burton Albion 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLWDLDWL

Head-to-head

Doncaster 3–1–2 Burton Albion (6 last)

Burton Albion1-2Doncaster
Doncaster1-1Burton Albion
Doncaster2-1Burton Albion
Doncaster2-0Burton Albion
Burton Albion2-0Doncaster
Doncaster0-3Burton Albion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Doncaster 1462 · Burton Albion 1480

	Doncaster	Draw	Burton Albion
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Doncaster: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Doncaster	Burton Albion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.2	1.9 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.02

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 4.30 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.36

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40 +2’	1.80	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:56 +346’	1.67	4.30	4.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Doncaster 3–1–2 Burton Albion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/26 England League 1	Burton Albion	1-2 HT 0-2	Doncaster
04/10/25 England League 1	Doncaster	1-1 HT 1-0	Burton Albion
07/11/23 England EFL Trophy	Doncaster	2-1 HT 1-0	Burton Albion
23/04/22 England League 1	Doncaster	2-0 HT 1-0	Burton Albion
27/11/21 England League 1	Burton Albion	2-0 HT 0-0	Doncaster
13/04/21 England League 1	Doncaster	0-3 HT 0-0	Burton Albion

Standings · England League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plymouth	9	5	1	3	16	11	16
2	Bradford	8	5	1	2	8	5	16
3	Huddersfield	8	4	3	1	14	7	15
4	Sheff Wed	7	4	2	1	13	6	14
5	Stockport	8	4	1	3	17	10	13
6	Cambridge Utd	8	3	4	1	13	11	13
7	Reading	8	3	3	2	17	10	12
8	Burton Albion	9	3	3	3	14	15	12
9	AFC Wimbledon	8	3	3	2	6	8	12
10	Oxford Utd	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
11	Leyton Orient	8	3	1	4	13	11	10
12	Wycombe	8	2	4	2	13	16	10
13	Stevenage	7	2	3	2	11	8	9
14	Leicester	7	2	3	2	9	11	9
15	Blackpool	7	2	2	3	13	13	8
16	Luton	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
17	Mansfield	7	2	2	3	10	13	8
18	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
19	Bromley	7	2	2	3	8	18	8
20	Notts County	7	1	4	2	7	9	7
21	Doncaster	7	1	3	3	8	9	6
22	Milton Keynes Dons	7	0	6	1	8	10	6
23	Peterborough	8	1	2	5	4	13	5
24	Wigan	7	1	1	5	5	12	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Doncaster	Burton Albion
AFC Wimbledon	0-1 L	4-1 W
Plymouth	2-3 L	1-0 W
Notts County	1-1 D	1-2 L
Stevenage	2-2 D	1-1 D
Mansfield	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Burton Albion (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Doncaster

LDWLDDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Peterborough England League 1	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
12/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
05/09	Plymouth England League 1	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
01/09	Notts County England League 1	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
29/08	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	2-2	9	3	D
22/08	Barnsley England League 1	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
15/08	Mansfield England League 1	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
02/05	Peterborough England League 1	0-0	3-1	3	4	W
25/04	Stevenage England League 1	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/04	Lincoln City England League 1	0-1	0-2	1	3	L

Burton Albion

DDWLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Huddersfield England League 1	1-2	1-3	1	2	L
26/09	Plymouth England League 1	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
19/09	Mansfield England League 1	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
12/09	Oxford Utd England League 1	0-0	0-3	5	2	L
05/09	Cambridge Utd England League 1	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
02/09	AFC Wimbledon England League 1	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
29/08	Notts County England League 1	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
22/08	Leicester England League 1	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/08	Stevenage England League 1	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
02/05	Leyton Orient England League 1	1-1	2-2	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Doncaster vs Burton Albion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Doncaster win (51%). Probabilities: Doncaster 51%, draw 26%, Burton Albion 23%.

How many goals are expected in Doncaster vs Burton Albion?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Doncaster 1.71 · Burton Albion 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Doncaster vs Burton Albion?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.