Football · England League 1 · 10/10, 13:30
Prediction: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon
Team pages: Plymouth · AFC Wimbledon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3Total
Plymouth2.07
AFC Wimbledon0.93
1X2
Plymouth
Draw
AFC Wimbledon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Plymouth
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
AFC Wimbledon
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Plymouth
4–1–1
AFC Wimbledon
(6 last)
- AFC Wimbledon1-3Plymouth
- Plymouth1-2AFC Wimbledon
- Plymouth3-3AFC Wimbledon
- Plymouth2-0AFC Wimbledon
- AFC Wimbledon0-1Plymouth
- Plymouth1-0AFC Wimbledon
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Plymouth 1542 · AFC Wimbledon 1481
| Plymouth | Draw | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth (rating 1542 vs 1481).
- H2H favours Plymouth: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.9 | 1.6 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Plymouth 4–1–1 AFC Wimbledon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Plymouth |
| 18/10/25 England League 1 | Plymouth | 1-2 HT 1-1 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 21/12/22 England EFL Trophy | Plymouth | 3-3 HT 0-3 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 08/03/22 England League 1 | Plymouth | 2-0 HT 1-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
| 18/09/21 England League 1 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Plymouth |
| 02/04/21 England League 1 | Plymouth | 1-0 HT 1-0 | AFC Wimbledon |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheff Wed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge Utd | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Plymouth | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| Doncaster | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Plymouth (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Plymouth
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 26/09 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Blackpool England League 1 |
1-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Leicester England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Bradford England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Wycombe England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 15/08 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Northampton England League 1 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 8 | W |
AFC Wimbledon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/09 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Doncaster England League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 07/09 | Bromley England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/09 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Reading England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 15/08 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Huddersfield England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Plymouth win (63%). Probabilities: Plymouth 63%, draw 22%, AFC Wimbledon 15%.
How many goals are expected in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
The model expects 3 goals (Plymouth 2.07 · AFC Wimbledon 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.