Football · England League 1 · 10/10, 16:00
Prediction: Stevenage vs Wigan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Stevenage1.27
Wigan0.99
1X2
Stevenage
Draw
Wigan
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Stevenage
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Wigan
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stevenage
3–2–1
Wigan
(6 last)
- Stevenage1-0Wigan
- Wigan0-0Stevenage
- Stevenage1-2Wigan
- Wigan0-0Stevenage
- Wigan2-3Stevenage
- Stevenage1-0Wigan
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stevenage 1517 · Wigan 1449
| Stevenage | Draw | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stevenage (rating 1517 vs 1449).
- H2H favours Stevenage: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stevenage | Wigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.1 | 2.9 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stevenage 3–2–1 Wigan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Wigan |
| 29/11/25 England League 1 | Wigan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 18/01/25 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Wigan |
| 24/09/24 England League 1 | Wigan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stevenage |
| 27/01/24 England League 1 | Wigan | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Stevenage |
| 07/10/23 England League 1 | Stevenage | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Wigan |
Standings · England League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Bradford | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Huddersfield | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Sheff Wed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| 5 | Stockport | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | Cambridge Utd | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | Reading | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 12 |
| 8 | Burton Albion | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 10 | Oxford Utd | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 11 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 10 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Leicester | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Luton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 17 | Mansfield | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Barnsley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 19 | Bromley | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 18 | 8 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 7 |
| 21 | Doncaster | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 6 |
| 22 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 23 | Peterborough | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 5 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 4 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stevenage | Wigan |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Orient | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Stockport | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Stevenage (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stevenage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/09 | Luton England League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 05/09 | Barnsley England League 1 |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/09 | Peterborough England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Doncaster England League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Oxford Utd England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Burton Albion England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 13/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Wigan England League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Wigan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Wycombe England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 12/09 | Sheff Wed England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Stockport England League 1 |
0-3 | 0-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/09 | Milton Keynes Dons England League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 22/08 | Leyton Orient England League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambridge Utd England League 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Stevenage England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Wimbledon England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Port Vale England League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stevenage vs Wigan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stevenage win (42%). Probabilities: Stevenage 42%, draw 30%, Wigan 28%.
How many goals are expected in Stevenage vs Wigan?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Stevenage 1.27 · Wigan 0.99), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Wigan?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.