Football · USA USL Super League Women · 30/08, 01:00
Prediction: Carolina Ascent (W) vs Tampa Bay Sun (W)
Team pages: Carolina Ascent (W) · Tampa Bay Sun (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.69Total
Carolina Ascent (W)1.81
Tampa Bay Sun (W)0.88
1X2
Carolina Ascent (W)
Draw
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Carolina Ascent (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carolina Ascent (W)
3–2–1
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
(6 last)
- Tampa Bay Sun (W)1-2Carolina Ascent (W)
- Tampa Bay Sun (W)1-2Carolina Ascent (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-0Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)2-2Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Carolina Ascent (W)1-1Tampa Bay Sun (W)
- Tampa Bay Sun (W)1-0Carolina Ascent (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carolina Ascent (W) 1623 · Tampa Bay Sun (W) 1444
| Carolina Ascent (W) | Draw | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carolina Ascent (W) (rating 1623 vs 1444).
- H2H favours Carolina Ascent (W): 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carolina Ascent (W) | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 1.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carolina Ascent (W) 3–2–1 Tampa Bay Sun (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 05/04/26 USA USL Super League Women | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
| 14/03/26 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 07/09/25 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 18/05/25 USA USL Super League Women | Carolina Ascent (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
| 16/03/25 USA USL Super League Women | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Carolina Ascent (W) |
Standings · USA USL Super League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Sporting JAX (W) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Lexington SC (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | DC Power (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 7 | Dallas Trinity (W) | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 8 | Brooklyn (W) | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Carolina Ascent (W) | Tampa Bay Sun (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Trinity (W) | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| DC Power (W) | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Lexington SC (W) | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Sporting JAX (W) | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Carolina Ascent (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carolina Ascent (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 16/08 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
Tampa Bay Sun (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sporting JAX (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/08 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 01/04 | Dallas Trinity (W) USA USL Super League Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Tampa Bay Sun (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carolina Ascent (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Carolina Ascent (W) 58%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Sun (W) 17%.
How many goals are expected in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Tampa Bay Sun (W)?
The model expects 2.69 goals (Carolina Ascent (W) 1.81 · Tampa Bay Sun (W) 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Carolina Ascent (W) vs Tampa Bay Sun (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.