Football · USA USL Super League Women · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Sporting JAX (W) vs Dallas Trinity (W)

Team pages: Sporting JAX (W) · Dallas Trinity (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Sporting JAX (W)1.8

Dallas Trinity (W)0.94

1X2

57% 25% 19%

Sporting JAX (W) Draw Dallas Trinity (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting JAX (W) 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Dallas Trinity (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sporting JAX (W) 2–1 Dallas Trinity (W) (3 last)

Dallas Trinity (W)0-4Sporting JAX (W)
Dallas Trinity (W)0-2Sporting JAX (W)
Sporting JAX (W)0-1Dallas Trinity (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting JAX (W) 1543 · Dallas Trinity (W) 1464

	Sporting JAX (W)	Draw	Dallas Trinity (W)
Our model	56%	25%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting JAX (W) (rating 1543 vs 1464).
H2H favours Sporting JAX (W): 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting JAX (W)	Dallas Trinity (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.4	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.70

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
19:50 +19’	1.57	3.70	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting JAX (W) 2–0–1 Dallas Trinity (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA USL Super League Women	Dallas Trinity (W)	0-4 HT 0-2	Sporting JAX (W)
08/11/25 USA USL Super League Women	Dallas Trinity (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	Sporting JAX (W)
07/09/25 USA USL Super League Women	Sporting JAX (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Dallas Trinity (W)

Standings · USA USL Super League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carolina Ascent (W)	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Sporting JAX (W)	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Lexington SC (W)	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
4	DC Power (W)	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
5	Fort Lauderdale Utd (W)	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
6	Tampa Bay Sun (W)	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
7	Dallas Trinity (W)	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
8	Brooklyn (W)	3	0	0	3	1	8	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting JAX (W)	Dallas Trinity (W)
Tampa Bay Sun (W)	3-2 W	1-1 D
Fort Lauderdale Utd (W)	1-0 W	4-0 W
Carolina Ascent (W)	0-1 L	1-3 L
DC Power (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Brooklyn (W)	2-1 W	1-1 D
Lexington SC (W)	1-2 L	0-2 L
Spokane Zephyr (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting JAX (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting JAX (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-1	3-2	6	1	W
16/08	Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/05	Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
17/05	Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-2	1-3	4	2	L
07/05	DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
03/05	Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/04	Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
20/04	Spokane Zephyr (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
11/04	Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women	2-0	4-1	8	1	W
04/04	Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-0	2-0	2	5	W

Dallas Trinity (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
16/08	Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
24/05	Lexington SC (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-1	0-2	6	1	L
17/05	Fort Lauderdale Utd (W) USA USL Super League Women	2-0	4-0	5	5	W
10/05	Tampa Bay Sun (W) USA USL Super League Women	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/05	DC Power (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-0	1-1	0	2	D
26/04	Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
19/04	Carolina Ascent (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-0	0-1	11	1	L
12/04	Brooklyn (W) USA USL Super League Women	0-1	0-3	2	6	L
04/04	Spokane Zephyr (W) USA USL Super League Women	1-0	3-1	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting JAX (W) vs Dallas Trinity (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting JAX (W) win (57%). Probabilities: Sporting JAX (W) 57%, draw 25%, Dallas Trinity (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting JAX (W) vs Dallas Trinity (W)?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Sporting JAX (W) 1.8 · Dallas Trinity (W) 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting JAX (W) vs Dallas Trinity (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.