Football · Colombia Primera A · 19/09, 21:00
Prediction: Millonarios vs Boyaca Chico
Team pages: Millonarios · Boyaca Chico
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Millonarios2.38
Boyaca Chico0.54
1X2
Millonarios
Draw
Boyaca Chico
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Millonarios
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Boyaca Chico
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Millonarios
4–1–1
Boyaca Chico
(6 last)
- Millonarios2-2Boyaca Chico
- Boyaca Chico2-1Millonarios
- Boyaca Chico1-2Millonarios
- Millonarios4-2Boyaca Chico
- Boyaca Chico1-5Millonarios
- Millonarios3-0Boyaca Chico
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Millonarios 1546 · Boyaca Chico 1478
| Millonarios | Draw | Boyaca Chico | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 16% | 6% |
| Market | 78% | 16% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Millonarios (rating 1546 vs 1478).
- H2H favours Millonarios: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Millonarios | Boyaca Chico | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6.1 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.9 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Millonarios 4–1–1 Boyaca Chico
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Colombia Cup | Millonarios | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Boyaca Chico |
| 15/03/26 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Millonarios |
| 13/11/25 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Millonarios |
| 25/05/25 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Boyaca Chico |
| 15/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Boyaca Chico | 1-5 HT 0-4 | Millonarios |
| 29/04/24 Colombia Primera A | Millonarios | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Boyaca Chico |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 2 | Millonarios | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 16 |
| 3 | Deportes Tolima | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Independiente Medellin | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Independiente Santa Fe | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Deportivo Cali | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 12 |
| 9 | Llaneros | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 10 | Internacional de Bogota | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 11 | Aguilas Doradas | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Cucuta Deportivo | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 9 |
| 14 | Fortaleza CEIF | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| 15 | Boyaca Chico | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 8 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 |
| 18 | Alianza | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Junior | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 3 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 2 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Millonarios | Boyaca Chico |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Internacional de Bogota | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| Llaneros | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Aguilas Doradas | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Millonarios (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Millonarios
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/09 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 10 | D |
| 07/09 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 03/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 10 | D |
| 05/08 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Boyaca Chico
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 26/08 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 21/08 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 10 | L |
| 08/08 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Millonarios vs Boyaca Chico?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Millonarios win (78%). Probabilities: Millonarios 78%, draw 16%, Boyaca Chico 6%.
How many goals are expected in Millonarios vs Boyaca Chico?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Millonarios 2.38 · Boyaca Chico 0.54), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Boyaca Chico?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.