Football · Colombia Primera A · 26/07, 23:05

Prediction: Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Santa Fe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Aguilas Doradas1.17

Independiente Santa Fe1.11

1X2

36% 31% 33%

Aguilas Doradas Draw Independiente Santa Fe

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Aguilas Doradas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDWDD

Independiente Santa Fe 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDWDW

Head-to-head

Aguilas Doradas 1–5–0 Independiente Santa Fe (6 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente Santa Fe (rating 1506 vs 1552).
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aguilas Doradas	Independiente Santa Fe
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.6	0.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.78

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:13

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.80
X	2.91 → 2.95▲	Pinn 2.95
2	2.98 → 2.75▼	Pinn 2.75

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:11	2.55	2.91	2.98
09:12	2.80▲	2.95▲	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aguilas Doradas 1–5–0 Independiente Santa Fe

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/26 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	1-1 HT 0-1	Aguilas Doradas
23/07/25 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Aguilas Doradas
08/02/25 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe
07/10/24 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	0-0 HT 0-0	Aguilas Doradas
25/03/24 Colombia Primera A	Aguilas Doradas	1-1 HT 0-0	Independiente Santa Fe
08/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Independiente Santa Fe	0-5 HT 0-2	Aguilas Doradas

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Pasto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aguilas Doradas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alianza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	America de Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Boyaca Chico	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Bucaramanga	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Junior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Once Caldas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportes Tolima	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cucuta Deportivo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Cali	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Deportivo Pereira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortaleza CEIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Medellin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Santa Fe	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Internacional de Bogota	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Jaguares de Cordoba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Llaneros	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Millonarios	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aguilas Doradas

LWLLDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/05	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup	0-1	2-2	2	6	D
21/05	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Cup	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
18/05	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Cup	1-1	4-1	4	7	W
10/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
03/05	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
26/04	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	4	9	D
19/04	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
11/04	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-2	0-3	8	5	L
07/04	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
01/04	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-4	3	4	L

Independiente Santa Fe

WLWDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/05	Penarol Copa Libertadores	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/05	Platense Copa Libertadores	0-0	2-1	5	8	W
17/05	Junior Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
13/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
10/05	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
07/05	Corinthians Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
03/05	Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A	0-0	3-1	4	4	W
30/04	Platense Copa Libertadores	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
24/04	Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A	0-0	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Santa Fe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aguilas Doradas win (36%). Probabilities: Aguilas Doradas 36%, draw 31%, Independiente Santa Fe 33%.

How many goals are expected in Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Aguilas Doradas 1.17 · Independiente Santa Fe 1.11), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Santa Fe?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.