Football · Colombia Primera A · 27/07, 03:15
Prediction: Once Caldas vs Cucuta Deportivo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Once Caldas1.64
Cucuta Deportivo0.69
1X2
Once Caldas
Draw
Cucuta Deportivo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Once Caldas
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Cucuta Deportivo
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Once Caldas
2–2–2
Cucuta Deportivo
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Once Caldas 1514 · Cucuta Deportivo 1471
| Once Caldas | Draw | Cucuta Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 27% | 14% |
| Market | 60% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Once Caldas (rating 1514 vs 1471).
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Once Caldas | Cucuta Deportivo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.9 | 1.6 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Once Caldas 2–2–2 Cucuta Deportivo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/26 Colombia Primera A | Cucuta Deportivo | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Once Caldas |
| 23/02/23 Colombia Cup | Once Caldas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 16/02/23 Colombia Cup | Cucuta Deportivo | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Once Caldas |
| 14/10/20 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
| 04/08/19 Colombia Primera A | Cucuta Deportivo | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Once Caldas |
| 12/02/19 Colombia Primera A | Once Caldas | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Cucuta Deportivo |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Pasto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Aguilas Doradas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alianza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Boyaca Chico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Junior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Once Caldas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportes Tolima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cucuta Deportivo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fortaleza CEIF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Independiente Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Internacional de Bogota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Llaneros | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Millonarios | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Once Caldas | Cucuta Deportivo |
|---|---|---|
| Junior | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Independiente Medellin | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Once Caldas (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Once Caldas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 12 | D |
| 11/05 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 02/05 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 9 | D |
| 21/04 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 10/04 | Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 30/03 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/03 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/03 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
Cucuta Deportivo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Itagui Leones Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | America de Cali Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 02/04 | Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 28/03 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Once Caldas vs Cucuta Deportivo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Once Caldas win (60%). Probabilities: Once Caldas 60%, draw 25%, Cucuta Deportivo 15%.
How many goals are expected in Once Caldas vs Cucuta Deportivo?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Once Caldas 1.64 · Cucuta Deportivo 0.69), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Cucuta Deportivo?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.