Football · Belgium First Division B · 25/10, 19:15

Prediction: RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen

Team pages: RFC Liege · Patro Eisden Maasmechelen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

RFC Liege1.53

Patro Eisden Maasmechelen1.6

1X2

35% 26% 38%

RFC Liege Draw Patro Eisden Maasmechelen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

RFC Liege 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

RFC Liege 2–2–2 Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (6 last)

Patro Eisden Maasmechelen1-1RFC Liege
RFC Liege0-2Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
RFC Liege2-2Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen2-0RFC Liege
RFC Liege1-0Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Patro Eisden Maasmechelen0-2RFC Liege

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFC Liege 1472 · Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 1476

	RFC Liege	Draw	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Our model	36%	26%	39%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFC Liege	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.2	1.3 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.41
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:17 +6’	2.55	3.30	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +133’	2.69	3.48	2.46
11:34 +66’	2.71▲	3.41▼	2.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RFC Liege 2–2–2 Patro Eisden Maasmechelen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 Belgium First Division B	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	1-1 HT 0-0	RFC Liege
30/08/25 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	0-2 HT 0-1	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
30/03/25 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	2-2 HT 1-1	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
24/11/24 Belgium First Division B	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	2-0 HT 1-0	RFC Liege
12/01/24 Belgium First Division B	RFC Liege	1-0 HT 0-0	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
07/10/23 Belgium First Division B	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	0-2 HT 0-0	RFC Liege

Standings · Belgium First Division B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	7	6	0	1	18	6	18
2	FCV Dender EH	7	6	0	1	11	2	18
3	Eupen	6	5	0	1	13	5	15
4	Francs Borains	6	4	0	2	9	7	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	4	0	3	8	10	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	3	1	2	11	6	10
7	KSC Lokeren Temse	6	3	1	2	13	11	10
8	Lierse Kempenzonen	6	2	2	2	7	8	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	2	2	2	11	13	8
10	Gent II	6	2	2	2	9	11	8
11	Genk II	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
12	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen	7	2	0	5	8	12	6
13	RFC Liege	7	1	2	4	11	18	5
14	RFC Seraing	7	0	2	5	8	15	2
15	Anderlecht II	7	0	1	6	7	17	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFC Liege	Patro Eisden Maasmechelen
KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk	1-5 L	2-4 L
Eupen	1-3 L	1-2 L
Club Brugge II	4-4 D	1-2 L
Lierse Kempenzonen	0-0 D	1-2 L
FCV Dender EH	1-2 L	0-1 L
Genk II	3-2 W	1-0 W
Francs Borains	1-2 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Patro Eisden Maasmechelen (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFC Liege

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-5	3	1	L
19/09	Eupen Belgium First Division B	0-2	1-3	7	3	L
13/09	Club Brugge II Belgium First Division B	2-2	4-4	6	2	D
06/09	Lierse Kempenzonen Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
29/08	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division B	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
23/08	Genk II Belgium First Division B	2-1	3-2	3	1	W
17/08	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-2	7	5	L
27/04	Lommel Belgium First Division B	1-2	1-2	11	3	L
17/04	Eupen Belgium First Division B	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
12/04	Gent II Belgium First Division B	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Patro Eisden Maasmechelen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Genk II Belgium First Division B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
20/09	FCV Dender EH Belgium First Division B	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Eupen Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
04/09	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B	1-1	2-4	2	4	L
29/08	Club Brugge II Belgium First Division B	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Lierse Kempenzonen Belgium First Division B	0-0	1-2	2	6	L
15/08	Anderlecht II Belgium First Division B	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
27/04	KFCO Beerschot Wilrijk Belgium First Division B	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
17/04	Francs Borains Belgium First Division B	1-0	4-0	2	2	W
05/04	RFC Seraing Belgium First Division B	0-1	0-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Patro Eisden Maasmechelen win (38%). Probabilities: RFC Liege 35%, draw 26%, Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 38%.

How many goals are expected in RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen?

The model expects 3.14 goals (RFC Liege 1.53 · Patro Eisden Maasmechelen 1.6), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden Maasmechelen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.