Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: MFK Bytca vs FK Humenne

Team pages: MFK Bytca · FK Humenne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

MFK Bytca1.11

FK Humenne1.29

1X2

32% 28% 41%

MFK Bytca Draw FK Humenne

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Bytca 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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FK Humenne 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Bytca 1444 · FK Humenne 1466

	MFK Bytca	Draw	FK Humenne
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	33%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Bytca	FK Humenne
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	1.7 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	6.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:02 +10’	2.75	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Petrzalka	11	9	1	1	21	7	28
2	STK Samorin	10	9	0	1	22	10	27
3	MSK Povazska Bystrica	11	7	1	3	23	19	22
4	MSK Zilina B	11	6	2	3	14	10	20
5	FK Pohronie	11	6	1	4	18	15	19
6	FC Tatran Presov	11	5	2	4	15	16	17
7	Inter Bratislava	11	4	4	3	22	13	16
8	Slovan Galanta	11	5	1	5	15	17	16
9	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	11	3	4	4	12	11	13
10	OFK Banik Lehota	11	3	4	4	17	19	13
11	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	10	3	4	3	15	12	13
12	Slovan Bratislava B	11	3	3	5	16	16	12
13	OFK Malzenice	11	3	2	6	14	16	11
14	FK Humenne	11	2	2	7	6	15	8
15	MFK Bytca	11	2	0	9	9	30	6
16	MFK Zvolen	11	0	3	8	7	20	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Bytca	FK Humenne
MSK Zilina B	1-2 L	0-0 D
MSK Povazska Bystrica	1-4 L	1-2 L
OFK Banik Lehota	2-1 W	0-1 L
Slovan Bratislava B	0-2 L	0-3 L
STK Samorin	1-2 L	1-3 L
FK Pohronie	1-3 L	0-2 L
Inter Bratislava	0-3 L	1-1 D
FC Petrzalka	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 7 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: FK Humenne (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Bytca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/09	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
19/09	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
13/09	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/08	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
14/08	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	1-3	1-3	2	5	L
08/08	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
02/08	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-4	5	2	L

FK Humenne

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
28/09	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
19/09	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	13	D
12/09	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-2	1	6	L
05/09	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
29/08	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
22/08	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
17/08	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
08/08	MFK Zvolen Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
01/08	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	1-2	1-3	11	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Bytca vs FK Humenne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Humenne win (41%). Probabilities: MFK Bytca 32%, draw 28%, FK Humenne 41%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Bytca vs FK Humenne?

The model expects 2.4 goals (MFK Bytca 1.11 · FK Humenne 1.29), with a 58% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Bytca vs FK Humenne?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.