Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 17/10, 14:30

Prediction: MFK Zvolen vs MSK Povazska Bystrica

Team pages: MFK Zvolen · MSK Povazska Bystrica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

MFK Zvolen1.41

MSK Povazska Bystrica1.63

1X2

32% 26% 42%

MFK Zvolen Draw MSK Povazska Bystrica

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Zvolen 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LDLDLLLLLL

MSK Povazska Bystrica 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

MFK Zvolen 1–3 MSK Povazska Bystrica (4 last)

MSK Povazska Bystrica0-2MFK Zvolen
MFK Zvolen0-1MSK Povazska Bystrica
MFK Zvolen0-1MSK Povazska Bystrica
MSK Povazska Bystrica3-1MFK Zvolen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Zvolen 1458 · MSK Povazska Bystrica 1524

	MFK Zvolen	Draw	MSK Povazska Bystrica
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	32%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSK Povazska Bystrica (rating 1458 vs 1524).
H2H favours MSK Povazska Bystrica: 3-0-1.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Zvolen	MSK Povazska Bystrica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.9	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	3.2 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.90 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:15 +8’	3.25	3.50	1.90
16:18 +15’	2.80▼	3.40▼	2.15▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MFK Zvolen 1–0–3 MSK Povazska Bystrica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Povazska Bystrica	0-2 HT 0-0	MFK Zvolen
27/09/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	MFK Zvolen	0-1 HT 0-0	MSK Povazska Bystrica
18/03/25 Slovakia 2. Liga	MFK Zvolen	0-1 HT 0-1	MSK Povazska Bystrica
17/08/24 Slovakia 2. Liga	MSK Povazska Bystrica	3-1 HT 2-0	MFK Zvolen

Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Petrzalka	12	9	2	1	22	8	29
2	STK Samorin	12	9	1	2	23	13	28
3	MSK Povazska Bystrica	12	7	2	3	25	21	23
4	FK Pohronie	12	7	1	4	21	16	22
5	MSK Zilina B	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
6	Inter Bratislava	12	5	4	3	27	15	19
7	Slovan Galanta	12	6	1	5	18	19	19
8	FC Tatran Presov	12	5	3	4	17	18	18
9	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	12	4	4	4	17	14	16
10	OFK Banik Lehota	12	4	4	4	18	19	16
11	Slovan Bratislava B	12	4	3	5	18	16	15
12	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
13	OFK Malzenice	12	3	2	7	16	21	11
14	MFK Bytca	12	3	0	9	13	31	9
15	FK Humenne	12	2	2	8	7	19	8
16	MFK Zvolen	12	0	3	9	7	21	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Zvolen	MSK Povazska Bystrica
OFK Banik Lehota	0-1 L	2-1 W
Slovan Bratislava B	0-2 L	1-1 D
STK Samorin	1-3 L	1-4 L
OFK Malzenice	1-2 L	2-1 W
FC Vion Zlate Moravce	0-4 L	2-1 W
FK Humenne	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MSK Povazska Bystrica (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Zvolen

LDLDLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	7	9	L
03/10	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	0-2	4	2	L
26/09	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	1-3	4	4	L
19/09	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
14/09	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	0-4	10	2	L
05/09	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	1-2	11	7	L
29/08	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
24/08	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
14/08	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	1-2	2-2	9	4	D
08/08	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

MSK Povazska Bystrica

WWLDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Tatran Presov Slovakia 2. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
03/10	Slovan Galanta Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	3-2	9	6	W
26/09	MFK Bytca Slovakia 2. Liga	2-0	4-1	9	1	W
20/09	MSK Zilina B Slovakia 2. Liga	2-3	2-4	10	1	L
12/09	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	2-1	6	6	W
05/09	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
30/08	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
22/08	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-4	7	7	L
16/08	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
10/08	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Zvolen vs MSK Povazska Bystrica?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MSK Povazska Bystrica win (42%). Probabilities: MFK Zvolen 32%, draw 26%, MSK Povazska Bystrica 42%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Zvolen vs MSK Povazska Bystrica?

The model expects 3.03 goals (MFK Zvolen 1.41 · MSK Povazska Bystrica 1.63), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Zvolen vs MSK Povazska Bystrica?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.