Football · Slovakia 2. Liga · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: MFK Bytca vs MSK Zilina B

Team pages: MFK Bytca · MSK Zilina B

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

MFK Bytca1.05

MSK Zilina B1.68

1X2

23% 25% 52%

MFK Bytca Draw MSK Zilina B

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MFK Bytca 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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MSK Zilina B 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MFK Bytca 1445 · MSK Zilina B 1525

	MFK Bytca	Draw	MSK Zilina B
Our model	23%	27%	51%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSK Zilina B (rating 1445 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MFK Bytca	MSK Zilina B
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.8	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.90

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.82

2 (-0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +4’	3.80	3.90	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Slovakia 2. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Petrzalka	10	9	0	1	20	6	27
2	STK Samorin	10	9	0	1	22	10	27
3	MSK Povazska Bystrica	10	6	1	3	20	17	19
4	MSK Zilina B	10	5	2	3	12	9	17
5	Slovan Galanta	10	5	1	4	13	14	16
6	FK Pohronie	10	5	1	4	16	15	16
7	Inter Bratislava	10	4	3	3	20	11	15
8	FC Tatran Presov	10	4	2	4	12	14	14
9	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas	10	3	4	3	15	12	13
10	OFK Banik Lehota	10	3	4	3	15	16	13
11	FC Vion Zlate Moravce	10	3	3	4	10	9	12
12	OFK Malzenice	10	3	1	6	13	15	10
13	Slovan Bratislava B	10	2	3	5	14	16	9
14	FK Humenne	10	2	2	6	6	13	8
15	MFK Bytca	10	2	0	8	8	28	6
16	MFK Zvolen	10	0	3	7	7	18	3

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MFK Bytca	MSK Zilina B
MSK Povazska Bystrica	1-4 L	4-2 W
OFK Banik Lehota	2-1 W	0-1 L
Slovan Bratislava B	0-2 L	2-0 W
STK Samorin	1-2 L	1-2 L
OFK Malzenice	1-3 L	2-1 W
FC Vion Zlate Moravce	2-1 W	0-0 D
FK Pohronie	1-3 L	2-1 W
Inter Bratislava	0-3 L	1-0 W
FC Petrzalka	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 7 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MSK Zilina B (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MFK Bytca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
19/09	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
13/09	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
31/08	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
14/08	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	1-3	1-3	2	5	L
08/08	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	0-3	0-3	4	5	L
02/08	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
25/07	FK Tatran Liptovsky Mikulas Slovakia 2. Liga	0-2	0-5	6	3	L

MSK Zilina B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	FK Humenne Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
20/09	MSK Povazska Bystrica Slovakia 2. Liga	3-2	4-2	4	1	W
12/09	OFK Banik Lehota Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
07/09	Slovan Bratislava B Slovakia 2. Liga	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
29/08	STK Samorin Slovakia 2. Liga	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
23/08	OFK Malzenice Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
15/08	FC Vion Zlate Moravce Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/08	FK Pohronie Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
03/08	Inter Bratislava Slovakia 2. Liga	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
26/07	FC Petrzalka Slovakia 2. Liga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MFK Bytca vs MSK Zilina B?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MSK Zilina B win (52%). Probabilities: MFK Bytca 23%, draw 25%, MSK Zilina B 52%.

How many goals are expected in MFK Bytca vs MSK Zilina B?

The model expects 2.73 goals (MFK Bytca 1.05 · MSK Zilina B 1.68), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in MFK Bytca vs MSK Zilina B?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.