Football · Austria Cup · 25/07, 18:00
Prediction: Oberwart vs FC Salzburg
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.46Total
Oberwart1.23
FC Salzburg3.23
1X2
Oberwart
Draw
FC Salzburg
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-3
Recent form · 10 last
Oberwart
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
FC Salzburg
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oberwart 1599 · FC Salzburg 1484
| Oberwart | Draw | FC Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 10% | 14% | 76% |
| Market | 3% | 6% | 92% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.46 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oberwart (rating 1599 vs 1484).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oberwart | FC Salzburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.8 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.6 | 3.8 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 1.7 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oberwart
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 Austria Amateur Cup |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 26/06 | Sturm Graz II Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 19/06 | Rapid Vienna II Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 05/06 | Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost |
3-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | SC Wiener Viktoria Austria Regionalliga Ost |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/05 | Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 Austria Amateur Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/05 | FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Wiener Sportclub Austria Regionalliga Ost |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Favoritner AC Austria Regionalliga Ost |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 05/05 | SV Muhlgraben Austria Amateur Cup |
5-0 | 10-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
FC Salzburg
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Istanbul Basaksehir Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/07 | Gamba Osaka World Club Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 09/07 | FC Kharkiv Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Gornik Zabrze Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Seekirchen Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Hartberg Austria Bundesliga |
0-2 | 1-3 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | LASK Linz Austria Bundesliga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | SK Sturm Graz Austria Bundesliga |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Rapid Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 22/04 | FK Austria Vienna Austria Bundesliga |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oberwart vs FC Salzburg?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Salzburg win (84%). Probabilities: Oberwart 6%, draw 9%, FC Salzburg 84%.
How many goals are expected in Oberwart vs FC Salzburg?
The model expects 4.46 goals (Oberwart 1.23 · FC Salzburg 3.23), with a 57% chance of under 5 goals.
Will both teams score in Oberwart vs FC Salzburg?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.