Football · Belgium Super League Women · 25/09, 20:00

Prediction: Genk (W) vs Gent (W)

Team pages: Genk (W) · Gent (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Genk (W)1.99

Gent (W)1.34

1X2

51% 24% 24%

Genk (W) Draw Gent (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Genk (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWLLDL

Gent (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Genk (W) 2–3–1 Gent (W) (6 last)

Gent (W)0-2Genk (W)
Genk (W)2-2Gent (W)
Gent (W)2-2Genk (W)
Gent (W)1-6Genk (W)
Genk (W)0-2Gent (W)
Gent (W)1-1Genk (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Genk (W) 1503 · Gent (W) 1418

	Genk (W)	Draw	Gent (W)
Our model	52%	24%	25%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Genk (W) (rating 1503 vs 1418).
H2H favours Genk (W): 2-3-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Genk (W)	Gent (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	1.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +19’	1.75	3.60	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Genk (W) 2–3–1 Gent (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Belgium Super League Women	Gent (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Genk (W)
24/04/26 Belgium Super League Women	Genk (W)	2-2 HT 0-1	Gent (W)
22/02/26 Belgium Super League Women	Gent (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Genk (W)
20/12/25 Belgium Super League Women	Gent (W)	1-6 HT 0-3	Genk (W)
13/09/25 Belgium Super League Women	Genk (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Gent (W)
16/05/25 Belgium Super League Women	Gent (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Genk (W)

Standings · Belgium Super League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Anderlecht (W)	3	3	0	0	8	0	9
2	Club Brugge (W)	3	3	0	0	6	2	9
3	OH Leuven (W)	3	2	1	0	11	1	7
4	RAAL La Louviere (W)	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
5	Standard Liege (W)	3	1	0	2	2	8	3
6	Genk (W)	3	0	1	2	0	5	1
7	Zulte-Waregem (W)	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
8	Gent (W)	3	0	0	3	3	11	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Genk (W)	Gent (W)
OH Leuven (W)	0-0 D	1-6 L
Anderlecht (W)	0-4 L	0-2 L
Zulte-Waregem (W)	1-2 L	1-4 L
Westerlo (W)	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Genk (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Genk (W)

DDWDWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Club Brugge (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
12/09	OH Leuven (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
05/09	Anderlecht (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
22/05	Zulte-Waregem (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
16/05	Gent (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	2-0	6	0	W
09/05	Westerlo (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
06/05	Zulte-Waregem (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
01/05	Westerlo (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
24/04	Gent (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
21/03	Zulte-Waregem (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-1	3-3	5	2	D

Gent (W)

WWDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	RAAL La Louviere (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Anderlecht (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
06/09	OH Leuven (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-3	1-6	4	1	L
23/05	Westerlo (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-2	1-2	5	0	L
16/05	Genk (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	0-2	6	0	L
09/05	Zulte-Waregem (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-1	1-4	2	3	L
02/05	Zulte-Waregem (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
24/04	Genk (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-0	2-2	11	0	D
04/04	Westerlo (W) Belgium Super League Women	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
21/03	Westerlo (W) Belgium Super League Women	1-0	3-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Genk (W) vs Gent (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Genk (W) win (51%). Probabilities: Genk (W) 51%, draw 24%, Gent (W) 24%.

How many goals are expected in Genk (W) vs Gent (W)?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Genk (W) 1.99 · Gent (W) 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Genk (W) vs Gent (W)?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.