Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Brinje Grosuplje vs NK Maribor

Team pages: NK Brinje Grosuplje · NK Maribor

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

NK Brinje Grosuplje0.88

NK Maribor1.79

1X2

18% 24% 58%

NK Brinje Grosuplje Draw NK Maribor

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Brinje Grosuplje 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDLLWLLW

NK Maribor 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWDWWDWD

Head-to-head

NK Brinje Grosuplje 0–1–1 NK Maribor (2 last)

NK Maribor3-0NK Brinje Grosuplje
NK Brinje Grosuplje1-1NK Maribor

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Brinje Grosuplje 1484 · NK Maribor 1562

	NK Brinje Grosuplje	Draw	NK Maribor
Our model	17%	25%	58%
Market	18%	23%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Maribor (rating 1484 vs 1562).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Brinje Grosuplje	NK Maribor
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.5	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.00

X3.90

21.53

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.88

2 (-1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +5’	5.00	3.90	1.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Brinje Grosuplje 0–1–1 NK Maribor

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Maribor	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Brinje Grosuplje
29/10/25 Slovenia Cup	NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-1 HT 0-1	NK Maribor

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	10	5	5	0	19	8	20
2	FC Koper	10	5	3	2	11	8	18
3	NK Bravo	10	5	3	2	12	10	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	10	8	14
5	Aluminij Kidricevo	10	3	4	3	16	11	13
6	NK Nafta 1903	10	4	1	5	17	16	13
7	NK Celje	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
9	NS Mura	10	2	3	5	10	21	9
10	NK Radomlje	9	1	2	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Brinje Grosuplje	NK Maribor
NK Radomlje	2-1 W	3-0 W
NK Nafta 1903	1-2 L	3-2 W
Olimpija Ljubljana	0-3 L	1-1 D
NK Celje	4-1 W	1-1 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	2-4 L	2-2 D
NS Mura	1-2 L	1-1 D
NK Bravo	1-1 D	3-1 W
FC Koper	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: NK Maribor (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Brinje Grosuplje

WLDDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
11/09	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
05/09	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
30/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	4-1	1	3	W
21/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	2-4	3	3	L
16/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
09/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
02/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
25/07	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	1	3	L
18/07	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	1	4	W

NK Maribor

DWDWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	2-0	3-0	10	3	W
06/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
30/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-2	8	5	W
23/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	3-1	10	4	W
15/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
09/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
25/07	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	5	3	W
19/07	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Brinje Grosuplje vs NK Maribor?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NK Maribor win (58%). Probabilities: NK Brinje Grosuplje 18%, draw 24%, NK Maribor 58%.

How many goals are expected in NK Brinje Grosuplje vs NK Maribor?

The model expects 2.67 goals (NK Brinje Grosuplje 0.88 · NK Maribor 1.79), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Brinje Grosuplje vs NK Maribor?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.