Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: Olimpija Ljubljana vs NS Mura

Team pages: Olimpija Ljubljana · NS Mura

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Olimpija Ljubljana1.55

NS Mura0.66

1X2

59% 26% 15%

Olimpija Ljubljana Draw NS Mura

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpija Ljubljana 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWDWWL

NS Mura 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLWLLDLD

Head-to-head

Olimpija Ljubljana 3–2–1 NS Mura (6 last)

NS Mura1-0Olimpija Ljubljana
NS Mura0-0Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana1-0NS Mura
NS Mura0-2Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana1-0NS Mura
NS Mura1-1Olimpija Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpija Ljubljana 1519 · NS Mura 1427

	Olimpija Ljubljana	Draw	NS Mura
Our model	58%	28%	15%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpija Ljubljana (rating 1519 vs 1427).
H2H favours Olimpija Ljubljana: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpija Ljubljana	NS Mura
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.70

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.73 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +4’	1.50	3.70	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +401’	1.71	3.66	4.69
09:45 +49’	1.76▲	3.59▼	4.49▼
11:15 +106’	1.73▼	3.63▲	4.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpija Ljubljana 3–2–1 NS Mura

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-0 HT 1-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
04/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	0-0 HT 0-0	Olimpija Ljubljana
31/01/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 1-0	NS Mura
28/09/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	0-2 HT 0-2	Olimpija Ljubljana
19/07/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0 HT 0-0	NS Mura
10/05/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NS Mura	1-1 HT 1-1	Olimpija Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	10	5	5	0	19	8	20
2	FC Koper	10	5	3	2	11	8	18
3	NK Bravo	10	5	3	2	12	10	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	10	8	14
5	Aluminij Kidricevo	10	3	4	3	16	11	13
6	NK Nafta 1903	10	4	1	5	17	16	13
7	NK Celje	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
9	NS Mura	10	2	3	5	10	21	9
10	NK Radomlje	9	1	2	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpija Ljubljana	NS Mura
NK Bravo	1-2 L	0-2 L
FC Koper	3-1 W	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	3-0 W	2-1 W
NK Radomlje	0-0 D	1-3 L
NK Nafta 1903	1-0 W	2-5 L
NK Maribor	1-1 D	1-1 D
NK Celje	0-1 L	0-0 D
Aluminij Kidricevo	1-0 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Olimpija Ljubljana (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olimpija Ljubljana

LLWLDWDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	6	11	L
12/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
29/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
21/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
15/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
08/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
02/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
25/07	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
18/07	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	12	3	L

NS Mura

DWLLWLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
13/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-3	1-6	5	6	L
06/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	0	6	D
29/08	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	6	L
22/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
16/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
10/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
01/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-5	5	3	L
25/07	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	0	7	W
17/07	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	2-2	1	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NS Mura?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpija Ljubljana win (59%). Probabilities: Olimpija Ljubljana 59%, draw 26%, NS Mura 15%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NS Mura?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Olimpija Ljubljana 1.55 · NS Mura 0.66), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpija Ljubljana vs NS Mura?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.