Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: NK Celje vs Aluminij Kidricevo

Team pages: NK Celje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

NK Celje1.95

Aluminij Kidricevo0.93

1X2

60% 23% 17%

NK Celje Draw Aluminij Kidricevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Celje 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWLLD

Aluminij Kidricevo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLLDWD

Head-to-head

NK Celje 4–1–1 Aluminij Kidricevo (6 last)

Aluminij Kidricevo0-2NK Celje
NK Celje5-0Aluminij Kidricevo
Aluminij Kidricevo2-1NK Celje
NK Celje2-1Aluminij Kidricevo
Aluminij Kidricevo2-3NK Celje
NK Celje2-2Aluminij Kidricevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Celje 1531 · Aluminij Kidricevo 1496

	NK Celje	Draw	Aluminij Kidricevo
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Celje: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Celje	Aluminij Kidricevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.64 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.48

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:59 +3’	1.48	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +155’	1.45	4.73	5.77
09:45 +49’	1.48▲	4.64▼	5.48▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Celje 4–1–1 Aluminij Kidricevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	0-2 HT 0-0	NK Celje
26/04/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	5-0 HT 3-0	Aluminij Kidricevo
05/03/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	2-1 HT 0-1	NK Celje
01/11/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	2-1 HT 1-0	Aluminij Kidricevo
17/08/25 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	2-3 HT 2-0	NK Celje
30/03/24 Slovenia Prva Liga	NK Celje	2-2 HT 1-2	Aluminij Kidricevo

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	10	5	5	0	19	8	20
2	FC Koper	10	5	3	2	11	8	18
3	NK Bravo	10	5	3	2	12	10	18
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	10	4	2	4	10	8	14
5	Aluminij Kidricevo	10	3	4	3	16	11	13
6	NK Nafta 1903	10	4	1	5	17	16	13
7	NK Celje	9	3	3	3	11	11	12
8	NK Brinje Grosuplje	10	3	2	5	14	18	11
9	NS Mura	10	2	3	5	10	21	9
10	NK Radomlje	9	1	2	6	9	18	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Celje	Aluminij Kidricevo
NS Mura	0-0 D	6-1 W
NK Bravo	1-2 L	0-0 D
FC Koper	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	1-4 L	4-2 W
NK Nafta 1903	3-1 W	1-1 D
Olimpija Ljubljana	1-0 W	0-1 L
NK Maribor	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Aluminij Kidricevo (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Celje

WDDWWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
06/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
02/09	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	14	4	W
30/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
15/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	3-1	9	3	W
08/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
01/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
17/07	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
22/05	NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga	4-0	4-0	6	4	W

Aluminij Kidricevo

DLDWWLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	6-1	4	6	W
05/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
02/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
21/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	4-2	4	3	W
16/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	3-1	3-1	3	8	W
09/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
19/07	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Celje vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Celje win (60%). Probabilities: NK Celje 60%, draw 23%, Aluminij Kidricevo 17%.

How many goals are expected in NK Celje vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model expects 2.88 goals (NK Celje 1.95 · Aluminij Kidricevo 0.93), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Celje vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.