Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 28/10, 17:00

Prediction: NK Nafta 1903 vs Aluminij Kidricevo

Team pages: NK Nafta 1903 · Aluminij Kidricevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

NK Nafta 19031.49

Aluminij Kidricevo1.41

1X2

38% 27% 35%

NK Nafta 1903 Draw Aluminij Kidricevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Nafta 1903 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Aluminij Kidricevo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

NK Nafta 1903 1–2–1 Aluminij Kidricevo (4 last)

Aluminij Kidricevo1-1NK Nafta 1903
Aluminij Kidricevo1-1NK Nafta 1903
NK Nafta 19031-3Aluminij Kidricevo
NK Nafta 19033-2Aluminij Kidricevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Nafta 1903 1525 · Aluminij Kidricevo 1481

	NK Nafta 1903	Draw	Aluminij Kidricevo
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Nafta 1903 (rating 1525 vs 1481).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Nafta 1903	Aluminij Kidricevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.30

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.63 ★
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +14’	2.35	3.30	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +384’	2.35	3.63	2.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Nafta 1903 1–2–1 Aluminij Kidricevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Slovenia Prva Liga	Aluminij Kidricevo	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Nafta 1903
17/03/23 Slovenia 2. SNL	Aluminij Kidricevo	1-1 HT 1-1	NK Nafta 1903
04/09/22 Slovenia 2. SNL	NK Nafta 1903	1-3 HT 0-0	Aluminij Kidricevo
30/06/21 Europe Friendlies	NK Nafta 1903	3-2 HT 2-0	Aluminij Kidricevo

Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Maribor	12	6	6	0	21	9	24
2	FC Koper	12	6	4	2	19	11	22
3	NK Bravo	12	5	4	3	14	13	19
4	Olimpija Ljubljana	12	5	3	4	14	11	18
5	NK Nafta 1903	12	5	2	5	18	16	17
6	NK Celje	11	4	4	3	12	11	16
7	Aluminij Kidricevo	12	3	4	5	16	13	13
8	NS Mura	12	2	5	5	13	24	11
9	NK Brinje Grosuplje	12	3	2	7	15	25	11
10	NK Radomlje	11	1	4	6	14	23	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Nafta 1903	Aluminij Kidricevo
NS Mura	0-0 D	6-1 W
NK Bravo	1-0 W	0-0 D
FC Koper	0-2 L	0-1 L
NK Brinje Grosuplje	2-1 W	4-2 W
NK Radomlje	3-1 W	3-1 W
NK Maribor	2-3 L	2-2 D
Olimpija Ljubljana	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Celje	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Aluminij Kidricevo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Nafta 1903

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/10	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
19/09	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
11/09	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
04/09	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	3-1	5	3	W
30/08	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	2-3	1	5	L
21/08	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
15/08	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	1-3	4	3	L
09/08	Aluminij Kidricevo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
01/08	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	2-1	5-2	0	3	W

Aluminij Kidricevo

DWWLLDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
10/10	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
19/09	NK Maribor Slovenia Prva Liga	0-1	2-2	9	2	D
13/09	NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga	3-0	6-1	4	6	W
05/09	NK Bravo Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
02/09	NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
28/08	FC Koper Slovenia Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
21/08	NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia Prva Liga	1-2	4-2	4	3	W
16/08	NK Radomlje Slovenia Prva Liga	3-1	3-1	3	8	W
09/08	NK Nafta 1903 Slovenia Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Nafta 1903 vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Nafta 1903 win (38%). Probabilities: NK Nafta 1903 38%, draw 27%, Aluminij Kidricevo 35%.

How many goals are expected in NK Nafta 1903 vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model expects 2.9 goals (NK Nafta 1903 1.49 · Aluminij Kidricevo 1.41), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Nafta 1903 vs Aluminij Kidricevo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.