Football · Slovenia Prva Liga · 17/07, 18:00
Prediction: NK Nafta 1903 vs FC Koper
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.91Total
NK Nafta 19031.13
FC Koper1.78
1X2
NK Nafta 1903
Draw
FC Koper
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
NK Nafta 1903
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
FC Koper
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NK Nafta 1903
0–1–5
FC Koper
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NK Nafta 1903 1473 · FC Koper 1558
| NK Nafta 1903 | Draw | FC Koper | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 24% | 24% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Koper (rating 1473 vs 1558).
- H2H favours FC Koper: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NK Nafta 1903 | FC Koper | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Nafta 1903 0–1–5 FC Koper
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/25 Slovenia Prva Liga | NK Nafta 1903 | 1-5 HT 0-1 | FC Koper |
| 01/03/25 Slovenia Prva Liga | FC Koper | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NK Nafta 1903 |
| 03/11/24 Slovenia Prva Liga | NK Nafta 1903 | 1-2 HT 0-2 | FC Koper |
| 17/08/24 Slovenia Prva Liga | FC Koper | 3-0 HT 0-0 | NK Nafta 1903 |
| 23/11/19 Slovenia 2. SNL | NK Nafta 1903 | 0-3 HT 0-1 | FC Koper |
| 18/08/19 Slovenia 2. SNL | FC Koper | 2-1 HT 2-0 | NK Nafta 1903 |
Standings · Slovenia Prva Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Aluminij | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Bravo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Koper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NS Mura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Nafta 1903 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Brinje Grosuplje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Celje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Maribor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NK Radomlje | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NK Nafta 1903
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Partizan Belgrade Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Budapest Honved Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 27/06 | FC Voluntari Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga Play-Offs |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 27/05 | NK Primorje Ajdovscina Slovenia Prva Liga Play-Offs |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | NK Triglav Kranj Slovenia 2. SNL |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | NK Brinje Grosuplje Slovenia 2. SNL |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 10/05 | ND Beltinci Slovenia 2. SNL |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | NK Bilje Slovenia 2. SNL |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/04 | ND Ilirija Ljubljana Slovenia 2. SNL |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
FC Koper
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | MTK Budapest Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/07 | Dinamo Zagreb Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | LNZ Lebedyn Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/07 | CS Corvinul Hunedoara Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Vllaznia Shkoder Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 19/06 | Shkendija Tetovo Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | NK Celje Slovenia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | NK Aluminij Slovenia Prva Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | NS Mura Slovenia Prva Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Olimpija Ljubljana Slovenia Prva Liga |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NK Nafta 1903 vs FC Koper?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Koper win (52%). Probabilities: NK Nafta 1903 23%, draw 25%, FC Koper 52%.
How many goals are expected in NK Nafta 1903 vs FC Koper?
The model expects 2.91 goals (NK Nafta 1903 1.13 · FC Koper 1.78), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in NK Nafta 1903 vs FC Koper?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.