Football · Poland I Liga · 31/07, 20:30
Prediction: Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznan
Team pages: Lechia Gdansk · Warta Poznan
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.31Total
Lechia Gdansk1.75
Warta Poznan1.56
1X2
Lechia Gdansk
Draw
Warta Poznan
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lechia Gdansk
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Warta Poznan
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lechia Gdansk
3–2–1
Warta Poznan
(6 last)
- Warta Poznan2-0Lechia Gdansk
- Lechia Gdansk0-0Warta Poznan
- Lechia Gdansk2-0Warta Poznan
- Warta Poznan0-2Lechia Gdansk
- Lechia Gdansk1-1Warta Poznan
- Warta Poznan0-1Lechia Gdansk
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lechia Gdansk 1407 · Warta Poznan 1471
| Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Poznan (rating 1407 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Lechia Gdansk: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lechia Gdansk | Warta Poznan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.3 | 1.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/20/70% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.7 | 2.2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 3.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Gdansk 3–2–1 Warta Poznan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Warta Poznan | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 03/09/22 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 23/04/22 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 30/10/21 Poland Ekstraklasa | Warta Poznan | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 05/02/21 Poland Ekstraklasa | Lechia Gdansk | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Warta Poznan |
| 23/08/20 Poland Ekstraklasa | Warta Poznan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chrobry Glogow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Polonia Bytom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Stal Mielec | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arka Gdynia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Polonia Warsaw | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | LKS Lodz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Warta Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 13 | Unia Skierniewice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Odra Opole | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Ruch Chorzow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Lechia Gdansk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stal Rzeszow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lechia Gdansk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 10/04 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
Warta Poznan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Gornik Polkowice Europe Friendlies |
2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Lechia Zielona Góra Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 03/07 | Motor Lublin Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Hutnik Krakow Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznan?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Gdansk win (41%). Probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 41%, draw 27%, Warta Poznan 33%.
How many goals are expected in Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznan?
The model expects 3.31 goals (Lechia Gdansk 1.75 · Warta Poznan 1.56), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Warta Poznan?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.