Football · Poland I Liga · 26/07, 14:30

Prediction: Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Ruch Chorzow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Termalica BB Nieciecza1.85

Ruch Chorzow1.43

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Termalica BB Nieciecza Draw Ruch Chorzow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Termalica BB Nieciecza 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWD

Ruch Chorzow 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Termalica BB Nieciecza 2–3–1 Ruch Chorzow (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1582 · Ruch Chorzow 1494

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Draw	Ruch Chorzow
Our model	47%	25%	29%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1582 vs 1494).
H2H favours Termalica BB Nieciecza: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Ruch Chorzow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 3.4	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.06
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +19’	2.00	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:29	2.05	3.58	3.23
21:36	2.06▲	3.62▲	3.27▲
22:32 +1’	2.06	3.61▼	3.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termalica BB Nieciecza 2–3–1 Ruch Chorzow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/25 Poland I Liga	Ruch Chorzow	2-2 HT 1-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza
18/08/24 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	1-1 HT 1-0	Ruch Chorzow
31/03/23 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-1 HT 1-0	Ruch Chorzow
27/08/22 Poland I Liga	Ruch Chorzow	2-1 HT 1-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza
04/03/17 Poland Ekstraklasa	Termalica BB Nieciecza	0-0 HT 0-0	Ruch Chorzow
16/09/16 Poland Ekstraklasa	Ruch Chorzow	0-1 HT 0-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Termalica BB Nieciecza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chrobry Glogow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stal Mielec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lechia Gdansk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	LKS Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Miedz Legnica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arka Gdynia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Odra Opole	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MKP Pogon Siedlce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polonia Bytom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polonia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puszcza Niepolomice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ruch Chorzow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stal Rzeszow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unia Skierniewice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warta Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Termalica BB Nieciecza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
17/07	Korona Kielce Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
11/07	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Resovia Rzeszow Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
27/06	Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-3	3	2	W
20/06	Unia Tarnow Europe Friendlies	2-0	5-0	1	1	W
23/05	Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-2	2	7	W
18/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
10/05	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
03/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-3	1-5	9	1	L

Ruch Chorzow

DLDDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	MFK Karvina Club Friendly List	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
10/07	Wieczysta Krakow Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-2	1	0	L
24/05	Znicz Pruszków Poland I Liga	1-2	2-3	3	4	L
17/05	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
10/05	GKS Tychy 71 Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	2	W
03/05	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
27/04	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	8	1	D
19/04	Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
11/04	Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
06/04	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	16	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Ruch Chorzow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Termalica BB Nieciecza win (46%). Probabilities: Termalica BB Nieciecza 46%, draw 26%, Ruch Chorzow 28%.

How many goals are expected in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Ruch Chorzow?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.85 · Ruch Chorzow 1.43), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Ruch Chorzow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.