Football · Poland I Liga · 25/07, 15:30
Prediction: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Lechia Gdansk1.46
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.43
1X2
Lechia Gdansk
Draw
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lechia Gdansk
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lechia Gdansk
1–1–0
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lechia Gdansk 1440 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1443
| Lechia Gdansk | Draw | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lechia Gdansk | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.1 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.4 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/30/60% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 7.1 | 1.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Gdansk 1–1–0 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/25 Poland Cup | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
| 24/09/24 Poland Cup | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lechia Gdansk |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chrobry Glogow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Mielec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lechia Gdansk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | LKS Lodz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Miedz Legnica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arka Gdynia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Odra Opole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Bytom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Warsaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ruch Chorzow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Rzeszow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unia Skierniewice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Warta Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lechia Gdansk | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|
| Legia Warsaw | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Wisla Plock | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lechia Gdansk
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 2-3 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 04/05 | Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/04 | Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 10/04 | Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 06/04 | Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Legia Warsaw Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 07/07 | AS Trencin Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Unia Skierniewice Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Wisla Plock Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Slask Wroclaw Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 17/05 | GKS Tychy 71 Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 11/05 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lechia Gdansk win (37%). Probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 37%, draw 27%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 36%.
How many goals are expected in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Lechia Gdansk 1.46 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.43), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.