Football · Poland I Liga · 27/07, 19:00

Prediction: Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Miedz Legnica1.56

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala1.05

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Miedz Legnica Draw Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Miedz Legnica 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLDW

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Miedz Legnica 2–3–1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Miedz Legnica 1485 · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 1581

	Miedz Legnica	Draw	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala (rating 1485 vs 1581).
H2H favours Miedz Legnica: 2-3-1.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Miedz Legnica	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.9	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 2.09
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.92 ★
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:02 +24’	1.85	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:26	2.07	3.87	2.96
18:32 +1’	2.09▲	3.92▲	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Miedz Legnica 2–3–1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/24 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	6-1 HT 4-1	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
12/11/23 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0-0 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica
14/04/22 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	1-1 HT 0-1	Miedz Legnica
01/10/21 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	4-2 HT 2-1	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
12/06/20 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	2-2 HT 1-1	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala
18/09/19 Poland I Liga	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	2-1 HT 1-0	Miedz Legnica

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Termalica BB Nieciecza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chrobry Glogow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stal Mielec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lechia Gdansk	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	LKS Lodz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Miedz Legnica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Arka Gdynia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Odra Opole	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MKP Pogon Siedlce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polonia Bytom	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Polonia Warsaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puszcza Niepolomice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ruch Chorzow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stal Rzeszow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unia Skierniewice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warta Poznan	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Miedz Legnica

LLWWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Banik Ostrava Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	1	2	W
08/07	Piast Gliwice Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	8	0	D
01/07	GKS Katowice Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	5	1	L
26/06	Zaglebie Lubin Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-3	12	3	L
24/05	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
17/05	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	7	5	L
09/05	Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	8	2	W
02/05	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
25/04	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	14	4	L
20/04	Gornik Leczna Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	10	1	L

Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala

WWWDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Termalica BB Nieciecza Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
07/07	Banik Ostrava B Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
04/07	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
06/06	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Poland II Liga	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
02/06	Slask Wroclaw II Poland League II Play-Offs	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
30/05	Podhale Nowy Targ Poland II Liga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
23/05	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	0-0	1-1	4	12	D
16/05	Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
01/05	OKS Swit Skolwin Poland II Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
24/04	Zaglebie Sosnowiec Poland II Liga	2-0	2-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Miedz Legnica win (48%). Probabilities: Miedz Legnica 48%, draw 27%, Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 25%.

How many goals are expected in Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Miedz Legnica 1.56 · Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala 1.05), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.