Football · Poland I Liga · 26/07, 17:00
Prediction: Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.32Total
Unia Skierniewice1.71
Stal Mielec1.61
1X2
Unia Skierniewice
Draw
Stal Mielec
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Unia Skierniewice
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Stal Mielec
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Unia Skierniewice 1515 · Stal Mielec 1446
| Unia Skierniewice | Draw | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Unia Skierniewice (rating 1515 vs 1446).
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Unia Skierniewice | Stal Mielec | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6 | 2.9 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 0 |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chrobry Glogow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Mielec | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lechia Gdansk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | LKS Lodz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Miedz Legnica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arka Gdynia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Odra Opole | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Bytom | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Polonia Warsaw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ruch Chorzow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stal Rzeszow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unia Skierniewice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Warta Poznan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Unia Skierniewice
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 4-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | LKS Lodz Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland II Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Chojniczanka Chojnice Poland II Liga |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 15/05 | LKS Lodz II Poland II Liga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Sokol Kleczew Poland II Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 19/04 | Slask Wroclaw II Poland II Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Stal Mielec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Avia Swidnik Europe Friendlies |
3-1 | 3-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | JKS Jaroslaw Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-2 | 11 | 0 | D |
| 11/07 | Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 01/07 | Podhale Nowy Targ Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 15/05 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Slask Wroclaw Poland I Liga |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Unia Skierniewice win (39%). Probabilities: Unia Skierniewice 39%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 35%.
How many goals are expected in Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
The model expects 3.32 goals (Unia Skierniewice 1.71 · Stal Mielec 1.61), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Unia Skierniewice vs Stal Mielec?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.