Football · Poland I Liga · 22/08, 15:30

Prediction: Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Polonia Warsaw

Team pages: Termalica BB Nieciecza · Polonia Warsaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Termalica BB Nieciecza1.54

Polonia Warsaw1.54

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Termalica BB Nieciecza Draw Polonia Warsaw

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Termalica BB Nieciecza 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Polonia Warsaw 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Termalica BB Nieciecza 1–2–1 Polonia Warsaw (4 last)

Termalica BB Nieciecza0-3Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw0-1Termalica BB Nieciecza
Termalica BB Nieciecza2-2Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw1-1Termalica BB Nieciecza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1576 · Polonia Warsaw 1467

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Draw	Polonia Warsaw
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1576 vs 1467).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Polonia Warsaw
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	0/30/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	3.8 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.66 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.43
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.51

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:36 +28’	2.45	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:48 +7’	2.67	3.44	2.50
00:16 +1’	2.66▼	3.43▼	2.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1–2–1 Polonia Warsaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/25 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	0-3 HT 0-1	Polonia Warsaw
29/09/24 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-0	Termalica BB Nieciecza
05/05/24 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-2 HT 1-1	Polonia Warsaw
04/11/23 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	1-1 HT 0-0	Termalica BB Nieciecza

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Arka Gdynia	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	11	7	8
4	Chrobry Glogow	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	Miedz Legnica	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Polonia Warsaw	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	LKS Lodz	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Warta Poznan	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Termalica BB Nieciecza	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Odra Opole	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	4	0	4	0	7	7	4
13	Polonia Bytom	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
14	Ruch Chorzow	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Puszcza Niepolomice	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
17	Stal Rzeszow	4	0	2	2	3	11	2
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	0	1	3	2	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Polonia Warsaw
MKP Pogon Siedlce	2-1 W	0-1 L
Ruch Chorzow	2-0 W	1-1 D
Wisla Krakow	4-3 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Termalica BB Nieciecza (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Termalica BB Nieciecza

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
01/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/07	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
18/07	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
17/07	Korona Kielce Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
11/07	Sandecja Nowy Sacz Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Resovia Rzeszow Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
27/06	Wisla Krakow Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-3	3	2	W
20/06	Unia Tarnow Europe Friendlies	2-0	5-0	1	1	W

Polonia Warsaw

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	13	6	L
07/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
26/07	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/07	FC Trinity Zlin Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
04/07	Wisla Plock Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
27/06	Znicz Pruszków Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-3	7	5	L
28/05	Wieczysta Krakow Poland I Liga	1-2	2-3	5	3	L
24/05	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	2-1	10	6	W
15/05	Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Polonia Warsaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Termalica BB Nieciecza win (37%). Probabilities: Termalica BB Nieciecza 37%, draw 26%, Polonia Warsaw 37%.

How many goals are expected in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.54 · Polonia Warsaw 1.54), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Polonia Warsaw?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.