Football · Poland I Liga · 21/08, 20:30

Prediction: Lechia Gdansk vs MKP Pogon Siedlce

Team pages: Lechia Gdansk · MKP Pogon Siedlce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Lechia Gdansk1.32

MKP Pogon Siedlce1.53

1X2

31% 28% 41%

Lechia Gdansk Draw MKP Pogon Siedlce

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lechia Gdansk 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

MKP Pogon Siedlce 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLDWDLDW

Head-to-head

Lechia Gdansk 1–0 MKP Pogon Siedlce (1 last)

Lechia Gdansk4-1MKP Pogon Siedlce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lechia Gdansk 1388 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1464

	Lechia Gdansk	Draw	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Our model	32%	27%	41%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MKP Pogon Siedlce (rating 1388 vs 1464).
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lechia Gdansk	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.5	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.7	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.4 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.61 ★
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.47

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:11 +3’	2.88	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:10 +4’	2.54	3.65	2.51
23:58 +1’	2.61▲	3.61▼	2.47▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lechia Gdansk 1–0–0 MKP Pogon Siedlce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/01/18 Europe Friendlies	Lechia Gdansk	4-1 HT 1-0	MKP Pogon Siedlce

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Arka Gdynia	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	11	7	8
4	Chrobry Glogow	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	Miedz Legnica	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Polonia Warsaw	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	LKS Lodz	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Warta Poznan	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Termalica BB Nieciecza	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Odra Opole	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	4	0	4	0	7	7	4
13	Polonia Bytom	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
14	Ruch Chorzow	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Puszcza Niepolomice	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
17	Stal Rzeszow	4	0	2	2	3	11	2
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	0	1	3	2	9	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lechia Gdansk	MKP Pogon Siedlce
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0-3 L	2-2 D
Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-3 L	1-2 L
Radomiak Radom	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MKP Pogon Siedlce (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lechia Gdansk

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
08/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
31/07	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-3	0-3	9	3	L
25/07	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	3	1	L
04/07	Olimpia Grudziadz Europe Friendlies	1-3	1-3	8	2	L
23/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	2-3	10	7	L
17/05	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
09/05	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-3	1-3	2	6	L
04/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
25/04	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	3	4	L

MKP Pogon Siedlce

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
07/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
01/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
25/07	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
18/07	Radomiak Radom Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
04/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
27/06	Unia Skierniewice Club Friendly List	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
24/05	Wisla Krakow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
15/05	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-1	1-3	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lechia Gdansk vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MKP Pogon Siedlce win (41%). Probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 31%, draw 28%, MKP Pogon Siedlce 41%.

How many goals are expected in Lechia Gdansk vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Lechia Gdansk 1.32 · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs MKP Pogon Siedlce?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.