Football · Poland I Liga · 21/08, 18:00

Prediction: Chrobry Glogow vs Warta Poznan

Team pages: Chrobry Glogow · Warta Poznan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Chrobry Glogow1.8

Warta Poznan1.43

1X2

45% 26% 29%

Chrobry Glogow Draw Warta Poznan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chrobry Glogow 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWLWD

Warta Poznan 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWLWL

Head-to-head

Chrobry Glogow 3–1–2 Warta Poznan (6 last)

Chrobry Glogow3-1Warta Poznan
Chrobry Glogow2-1Warta Poznan
Warta Poznan1-0Chrobry Glogow
Warta Poznan1-0Chrobry Glogow
Warta Poznan1-1Chrobry Glogow
Warta Poznan1-2Chrobry Glogow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chrobry Glogow 1493 · Warta Poznan 1469

	Chrobry Glogow	Draw	Warta Poznan
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chrobry Glogow: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chrobry Glogow	Warta Poznan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +18’	2.00	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chrobry Glogow 3–1–2 Warta Poznan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Chrobry Glogow	3-1 HT 2-0	Warta Poznan
11/05/25 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	2-1 HT 1-0	Warta Poznan
03/11/24 Poland I Liga	Warta Poznan	1-0 HT 1-0	Chrobry Glogow
29/06/24 Europe Friendlies	Warta Poznan	1-0 HT 0-0	Chrobry Glogow
08/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Warta Poznan	1-1 HT 1-1	Chrobry Glogow
30/06/20 Poland I Liga	Warta Poznan	1-2 HT 0-0	Chrobry Glogow

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
2	Arka Gdynia	4	3	0	1	8	2	9
3	Stal Mielec	4	2	2	0	11	7	8
4	Chrobry Glogow	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	Miedz Legnica	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
6	Polonia Warsaw	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	LKS Lodz	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	Warta Poznan	4	2	0	2	9	8	6
9	Termalica BB Nieciecza	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Odra Opole	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	4	0	4	0	7	7	4
13	Polonia Bytom	4	1	1	2	9	12	4
14	Ruch Chorzow	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
15	Puszcza Niepolomice	4	1	0	3	3	6	3
16	Unia Skierniewice	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
17	Stal Rzeszow	4	0	2	2	3	11	2
18	Lechia Gdansk	4	0	1	3	2	9	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chrobry Glogow	Warta Poznan
Odra Opole	0-1 L	1-3 L
Lechia Zielona Góra	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chrobry Glogow (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chrobry Glogow

WLLWLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
03/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	3	2	L
25/07	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	5-1	1	3	W
18/07	Sleza Wroclaw Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
18/07	Zaglebie Lubin Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	1	2	L
11/07	Warta Poznan Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	6	3	W
08/07	Pogon Szczecin Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
04/07	Slask Wroclaw Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
01/07	Lechia Zielona Góra Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

Warta Poznan

DLLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
09/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/08	Resovia Rzeszow Poland Cup	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
31/07	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
24/07	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	3-4	4	2	L
18/07	Gornik Polkowice Europe Friendlies	2-3	3-4	4	5	L
18/07	Lechia Zielona Góra Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	0	0	L
11/07	Chrobry Glogow Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
03/07	Motor Lublin Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-4	6	4	L
30/05	Resovia Rzeszow Poland II Liga	1-1	2-2	6	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chrobry Glogow vs Warta Poznan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chrobry Glogow win (45%). Probabilities: Chrobry Glogow 45%, draw 26%, Warta Poznan 29%.

How many goals are expected in Chrobry Glogow vs Warta Poznan?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Chrobry Glogow 1.8 · Warta Poznan 1.43), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chrobry Glogow vs Warta Poznan?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.