Football · Poland I Liga · 24/10, 15:30

Prediction: Arka Gdynia vs Termalica BB Nieciecza

Team pages: Arka Gdynia · Termalica BB Nieciecza

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Arka Gdynia1.44

Termalica BB Nieciecza1.67

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Arka Gdynia Draw Termalica BB Nieciecza

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Arka Gdynia 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Termalica BB Nieciecza 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDWWWD

Head-to-head

Arka Gdynia 1–1–4 Termalica BB Nieciecza (6 last)

Arka Gdynia2-3Termalica BB Nieciecza
Termalica BB Nieciecza2-0Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia2-1Termalica BB Nieciecza
Termalica BB Nieciecza2-1Arka Gdynia
Termalica BB Nieciecza2-1Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia2-2Termalica BB Nieciecza

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1469 vs 1559).
H2H favours Termalica BB Nieciecza: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arka Gdynia	Termalica BB Nieciecza
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:15

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.18 → 2.18	Pinn 2.18
X	3.62 → 3.62	Pinn 3.62
2	2.92 → 2.92	Pinn 2.92

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +3’	2.18	3.62	2.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arka Gdynia 1–1–4 Termalica BB Nieciecza

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Arka Gdynia	2-3 HT 1-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza
21/11/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-0 HT 1-0	Arka Gdynia
04/05/25 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	2-1 HT 2-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza
26/10/24 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-1 HT 1-0	Arka Gdynia
11/12/23 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	2-1 HT 1-1	Arka Gdynia
21/07/23 Poland I Liga	Arka Gdynia	2-2 HT 1-2	Termalica BB Nieciecza

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
3	Lechia Gdansk	11	6	1	4	21	17	19
4	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
5	LKS Lodz	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
5	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
7	Miedz Legnica	11	5	2	4	17	10	17
8	Termalica BB Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
9	Stal Rzeszow	11	5	2	4	15	20	17
10	Polonia Bytom	11	3	6	2	18	19	15
11	Chrobry Glogow	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	16	27	12
15	Arka Gdynia	11	3	2	6	13	15	11
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	11	1	8	2	13	15	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	10	3	0	7	11	14	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arka Gdynia	Termalica BB Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk	1-2 L	2-1 W
Polonia Warsaw	1-2 L	1-3 L
MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-2 L	2-1 W
Warta Poznan	0-3 L	1-2 L
LKS Lodz	1-1 D	1-2 L
Unia Skierniewice	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Termalica BB Nieciecza (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arka Gdynia

WLWLDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
10/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	5	0	L
20/09	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	0	6	D
23/08	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	8	3	L
17/08	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	3-0	3-0	6	4	W
10/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-2	0-2	5	8	L
01/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-0	4-0	4	3	W

Termalica BB Nieciecza

WWLLLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	2-1	2-2	8	4	D
19/09	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/09	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
04/09	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
01/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
26/07	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arka Gdynia vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Termalica BB Nieciecza win (42%). Probabilities: Arka Gdynia 32%, draw 26%, Termalica BB Nieciecza 42%.

How many goals are expected in Arka Gdynia vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Arka Gdynia 1.44 · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Termalica BB Nieciecza?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.