Football · Poland I Liga · 23/10, 18:00

Prediction: Polonia Warsaw vs Miedz Legnica

Team pages: Polonia Warsaw · Miedz Legnica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Polonia Warsaw1.63

Miedz Legnica0.98

1X2

51% 27% 21%

Polonia Warsaw Draw Miedz Legnica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Warsaw 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLLDWW

Miedz Legnica 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Polonia Warsaw 1–2–3 Miedz Legnica (6 last)

Polonia Warsaw1-1Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica1-1Polonia Warsaw
Miedz Legnica2-3Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw0-1Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica2-1Polonia Warsaw
Polonia Warsaw3-4Miedz Legnica

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Warsaw (rating 1547 vs 1504).
H2H favours Miedz Legnica: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Warsaw	Miedz Legnica
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.83

Under 31.96

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 04:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.93 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.95
X	3.72 → 3.69▼	Pinn 3.69
2	3.52 → 3.52	Pinn 3.52

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +112’	1.93	3.72	3.52
19:04 +108’	1.94▲	3.71▼	3.52
03:44 +37’	1.95▲	3.69▼	3.52

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Warsaw 1–2–3 Miedz Legnica

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	1-1 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica
14/09/25 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	1-1 HT 0-1	Polonia Warsaw
02/03/25 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	2-3 HT 1-0	Polonia Warsaw
17/08/24 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-0	Miedz Legnica
23/02/24 Poland I Liga	Miedz Legnica	2-1 HT 0-1	Polonia Warsaw
14/08/23 Poland I Liga	Polonia Warsaw	3-4 HT 1-1	Miedz Legnica

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	11	6	3	2	19	9	21
2	Polonia Warsaw	11	6	2	3	18	13	20
3	Warta Poznan	11	6	0	5	19	15	18
4	Ruch Chorzow	11	5	3	3	14	11	18
5	Miedz Legnica	11	5	2	4	17	10	17
6	Termalica BB Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
7	Lechia Gdansk	10	5	1	4	19	16	16
8	LKS Lodz	10	4	3	3	13	11	15
9	Polonia Bytom	11	3	6	2	18	19	15
10	Stal Rzeszow	10	4	2	4	11	17	14
11	MKP Pogon Siedlce	10	3	3	4	10	11	12
12	Chrobry Glogow	11	3	3	5	13	15	12
13	Odra Opole	11	3	3	5	8	12	12
14	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	16	27	12
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	10	1	8	1	13	14	11
16	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	12	13	11
17	Unia Skierniewice	11	3	2	6	12	18	11
18	Puszcza Niepolomice	10	3	0	7	11	14	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polonia Warsaw	Miedz Legnica
Arka Gdynia	2-1 W	2-0 W
Chrobry Glogow	2-0 W	1-1 D
Stal Rzeszow	1-2 L	2-3 L
Lechia Gdansk	2-4 L	1-2 L
Ruch Chorzow	1-1 D	2-0 W
Unia Skierniewice	3-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Miedz Legnica (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polonia Warsaw

WWDLWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
19/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
11/09	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
05/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	2	6	L
29/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	1-1	2-4	6	2	L
22/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-0	3-1	4	3	W
15/08	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	13	6	L
07/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
01/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	0-1	3-1	9	5	W
26/07	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Miedz Legnica

DWLWWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
19/09	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	1-3	2-3	3	2	L
13/09	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
05/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
30/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	7	2	L
02/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
27/07	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	1-1	9	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Warsaw vs Miedz Legnica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Warsaw win (51%). Probabilities: Polonia Warsaw 51%, draw 27%, Miedz Legnica 21%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Warsaw vs Miedz Legnica?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Polonia Warsaw 1.63 · Miedz Legnica 0.98), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Warsaw vs Miedz Legnica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.