Football · Peru Liga 2 · 25/07, 18:00

Prediction: CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

CD Universidad San Martin1.41

Carlos Manucci1.11

1X2

43% 29% 29%

CD Universidad San Martin Draw Carlos Manucci

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universidad San Martin 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLWDLL

Carlos Manucci 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLWWDW

Head-to-head

CD Universidad San Martin 0–1–5 Carlos Manucci (6 last)

Carlos Manucci2-1CD Universidad San Martin
Carlos Manucci3-2CD Universidad San Martin
CD Universidad San Martin1-3Carlos Manucci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universidad San Martin 1471 · Carlos Manucci 1550

	CD Universidad San Martin	Draw	Carlos Manucci
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Manucci (rating 1471 vs 1550).
H2H favours Carlos Manucci: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universidad San Martin	Carlos Manucci
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.8	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	5.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:24 +14’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universidad San Martin 0–1–5 Carlos Manucci

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	2-1 HT 2-0	CD Universidad San Martin
13/08/22 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	3-2 HT 1-2	CD Universidad San Martin
22/03/22 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	1-3 HT 0-2	Carlos Manucci
17/07/21 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	0-2 HT 0-1	Carlos Manucci
28/03/21 Peru Liga 1	Carlos Manucci	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Universidad San Martin
01/03/20 Peru Liga 1	CD Universidad San Martin	2-2 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Llacuabamba	8	5	1	2	11	4	16
2	Pirata FC	8	5	1	2	13	9	16
3	Union Comercio	7	4	2	1	5	2	14
4	Carlos Manucci	8	4	2	2	8	7	14
5	CD Universidad San Martin	9	3	2	4	14	10	11
6	Club Ada Jaen	8	1	5	2	5	6	8
7	Cesar Vallejo	7	2	1	4	6	8	7
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	8	0	2	6	4	17	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universidad San Martin	Carlos Manucci
Pirata FC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	3-4 L	4-1 W
Union Comercio	0-1 L	0-0 D
Cesar Vallejo	1-0 W	3-2 W
Club Ada Jaen	2-2 D	0-0 D
Deportivo Llacuabamba	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Carlos Manucci (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Universidad San Martin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/07	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	2-1	2-3	8	8	L
20/06	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	3-4	2	10	L
13/06	Sport Boys Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
31/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	2-0	4-0	6	9	W
23/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
17/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
03/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-2	6	2	D
18/04	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
05/04	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	0-2	1-2	10	7	L
28/03	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-1	10	4	D

Carlos Manucci

DLDWWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/07	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
28/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	3-2	5	7	W
21/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-1	1	5	W
13/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
24/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	0-0	4-1	9	5	W
09/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
02/05	Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
18/04	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Universidad San Martin win (43%). Probabilities: CD Universidad San Martin 43%, draw 29%, Carlos Manucci 29%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

The model expects 2.52 goals (CD Universidad San Martin 1.41 · Carlos Manucci 1.11), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universidad San Martin vs Carlos Manucci?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.