Football · Peru Liga 2 · 25/07, 22:00
Prediction: Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.94Total
Cesar Vallejo0.97
Union Comercio0.97
1X2
Cesar Vallejo
Draw
Union Comercio
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cesar Vallejo
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Union Comercio
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cesar Vallejo
3–2–1
Union Comercio
(6 last)
- Union Comercio1-0Cesar Vallejo
- Union Comercio2-2Cesar Vallejo
- Cesar Vallejo2-0Union Comercio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cesar Vallejo 1461 · Union Comercio 1508
| Cesar Vallejo | Draw | Union Comercio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Comercio (rating 1461 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Cesar Vallejo: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cesar Vallejo | Union Comercio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.3 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 3.1 / 6.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cesar Vallejo 3–2–1 Union Comercio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Peru Liga 2 | Union Comercio | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cesar Vallejo |
| 02/11/25 Peru Liga 2 | Union Comercio | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Cesar Vallejo |
| 26/10/25 Peru Liga 2 | Cesar Vallejo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Comercio |
| 14/09/24 Peru Liga 1 | Cesar Vallejo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Union Comercio |
| 06/04/24 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Cesar Vallejo |
| 21/07/23 Peru Liga 1 | Union Comercio | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Cesar Vallejo |
Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Llacuabamba | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Pirata FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Union Comercio | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Carlos Manucci | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 5 | CD Universidad San Martin | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 11 |
| 6 | Club Ada Jaen | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cesar Vallejo | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 8 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cesar Vallejo | Union Comercio |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Manucci | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Club Ada Jaen | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| CD Universidad San Martin | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Deportivo Llacuabamba | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Pirata FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Academia Deportiva Cantolao | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Comercio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cesar Vallejo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 19/06 | Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 25/05 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 02/05 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Union Comercio Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 2 | L |
Union Comercio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Sporting Cristal Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Comerciantes FC Peru Copa de la Liga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 15/06 | CD Estudiantil CNI Peru Copa de la Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 14 | 12 | D |
| 09/05 | Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Pirata FC Peru Liga 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 05/04 | Cesar Vallejo Peru Liga 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cesar Vallejo win (34%). Probabilities: Cesar Vallejo 34%, draw 32%, Union Comercio 34%.
How many goals are expected in Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio?
The model expects 1.94 goals (Cesar Vallejo 0.97 · Union Comercio 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Cesar Vallejo vs Union Comercio?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.